Closing spread
IND -2.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.045
- 45.4%Success rate45.9%
- +0.166EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.187EPA / rush-0.117
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.4%
- +0.07CPOE+1.05
- 42.7%Third-down rate42.8%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
- 2.05Points / drive2.10
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 54.9 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 31/39 | 340 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 10 | 85 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 5 | 5 | 63 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 5 | 5 | 57 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 5 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 7 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Cole Wick | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 31/47 | 385 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Josh Ferguson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Dorsett | 4 | 6 | 94 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 6 | 12 | 79 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 6 | 7 | 64 | 1 |
| Dwayne Allen | 4 | 6 | 53 | 1 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 4 | 35 | 2 |
| Josh Ferguson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 4 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.53