2016 · Week 1

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

39·35

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -2.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapColts
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.045
  • 45.4%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback+0.127
  • -0.187EPA / rush-0.117
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +0.07CPOE+1.05
  • 42.7%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 53.3%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.10
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 54.9 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12DET @ IND24–6DET
2020 · W8IND @ DET41–21IND
2012 · W13IND @ DET35–33IND
2008 · W15DET @ IND21–31IND
2004 · W12IND @ DET41–9IND
2000 · W9DET @ IND18–30IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–IND
INDQ1 15:00927Punt0–0
DETQ1 9:06990Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 4:4332Punt7–0
DETQ1 3:0534Punt7–0
INDQ1 1:4932Punt7–0
DETQ1 1:111582Touchdown14–0
INDQ2 9:11747Field goal14–3
DETQ2 4:50875Touchdown21–3
INDQ2 1:37875Touchdown21–10
DETQ2 0:0500End of half21–10
DETQ3 15:0038Punt21–10
INDQ3 12:411095Touchdown21–18
DETQ3 8:413-7Punt21–18
INDQ3 6:2430Punt21–18
DETQ3 5:56756Touchdown28–18
INDQ3 2:20933Field goal28–21
DETQ4 14:1736Punt28–21
INDQ4 12:38994Touchdown28–28
DETQ4 8:19985Touchdown34–28
INDQ4 4:04875Touchdown34–35
DETQ4 0:37450Field goal39–35
INDQ4 0:0400Safety39–35

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford31/3934030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah12635.30
Theo Riddick7456.41
Matthew Stafford252.50
Golden Tate122.00
Dwayne Washington210.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones410850
Theo Riddick55631
Ameer Abdullah55571
Eric Ebron55461
Golden Tate77410
Anquan Boldin33350
Andre Roberts1180
Cole Wick1150

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck31/4738540

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore14594.20
Andrew Luck3217.00
Robert Turbin144.00
Josh Ferguson1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Phillip Dorsett46940
T.Y. Hilton612790
Donte Moncrief67641
Dwayne Allen46531
Jack Doyle34352
Josh Ferguson22260
Frank Gore46190
Robert Turbin22150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.53