2024 · Week 12

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

24·6

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Joe Flacco

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -7

Total

50.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

IND perspective

Push chance

4.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapColts
  • +0.156EPA / play-0.045
  • 49.6%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.267EPA / dropback-0.025
  • +0.021EPA / rush-0.071
  • 11.5%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +5.81CPOE-5.38
  • 48.1%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 74.9%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 3.02Points / drive1.87
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 54.9 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W8IND @ DET41–21IND
2016 · W1DET @ IND39–35DET
2012 · W13IND @ DET35–33IND
2008 · W15DET @ IND21–31IND
2004 · W12IND @ DET41–9IND
2000 · W9DET @ IND18–30IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–IND
INDQ1 15:001166Field goal0–3
DETQ1 8:53724Punt0–3
INDQ1 4:39715Punt0–3
DETQ1 1:19958Touchdown7–3
INDQ2 12:07865Field goal7–6
DETQ2 8:16970Touchdown14–6
INDQ2 3:34530Punt14–6
DETQ2 1:45518Punt14–6
INDQ2 0:1200End of half14–6
DETQ3 15:001154Turnover on downs14–6
INDQ3 9:53638Punt14–6
DETQ3 7:411076Touchdown21–6
INDQ3 2:19519Punt21–6
DETQ3 0:12519Punt21–6
INDQ4 13:2130Punt21–6
DETQ4 12:5332Punt21–6
INDQ4 11:2236Punt21–6
DETQ4 10:08621Field goal24–6
INDQ4 6:21631Turnover on downs24–6
DETQ4 4:42649End of half24–6

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff26/3626900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs21904.32
David Montgomery8374.61
Craig Reynolds166.00
Jameson Williams144.00
Jared Goff200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jameson Williams57640
Amon-Ra St. Brown67620
Tim Patrick44550
David Montgomery33360
Brock Wright22240
Sam LaPorta36190
Jahmyr Gibbs3390
Kalif Raymond0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Richardson11/2817200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Richardson10616.10
Jonathan Taylor11353.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman67960
Alec Pierce14390
Josh Downs37270
Adonai Mitchell13100
Ashton Dulin0100
Kylen Granson0200
Andrew Ogletree0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

4.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.81
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.30