Closing spread
DET -7
Total
50.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
4.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play-0.045
- 49.6%Success rate40.6%
- +0.267EPA / dropback-0.025
- +0.021EPA / rush-0.071
- 11.5%Explosive rate10.3%
- +5.81CPOE-5.38
- 48.1%Third-down rate37.8%
- 74.9%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 3.02Points / drive1.87
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 54.9 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 26/36 | 269 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 21 | 90 | 4.3 | 2 |
| David Montgomery | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Craig Reynolds | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 11/28 | 172 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 10 | 61 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 7 | 96 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 1 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 3 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.21
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.81
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.30