Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
46
Model margin
+3.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.095EPA / play+0.037
- 39.3%Success rate45.3%
- -0.083EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.012
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- -3.00CPOE+3.93
- 35.1%Third-down rate42.2%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.70Points / drive1.91
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 36.9 points. HOU are 4-1-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 11:34 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 5:57 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| CHI | Q1 4:58 | 4 | 19 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| HOU | Q1 3:30 | 6 | 42 | Punt | 10–0 |
| CHI | Q1 0:48 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 10–0 |
| HOU | Q2 12:23 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–0 |
| CHI | Q2 11:26 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 10–0 |
| HOU | Q2 9:57 | 7 | 88 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| CHI | Q2 5:50 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| HOU | Q2 5:41 | 8 | 43 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| CHI | Q2 1:54 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 10–14 |
| HOU | Q2 0:38 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 10–14 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 10–14 |
| HOU | Q3 13:40 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| CHI | Q3 8:30 | 7 | 77 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| HOU | Q3 5:30 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 17–21 |
| CHI | Q3 3:10 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–21 |
| HOU | Q3 2:41 | 11 | 63 | Field goal | 17–24 |
| CHI | Q4 11:55 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 17–24 |
| HOU | Q4 9:35 | 12 | 94 | Touchdown | 17–31 |
| CHI | Q4 3:24 | 11 | 72 | Touchdown | 24–31 |
| HOU | Q4 1:31 | 2 | 6 | End of half | 24–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 22/37 | 244 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 27/36 | 328 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 20 | 92 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Ryan Moats | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.92