Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
46
Model margin
+3.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.095EPA / play+0.037
- 39.3%Success rate45.3%
- -0.083EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.012
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- -3.00CPOE+3.93
- 35.1%Third-down rate42.2%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.70Points / drive1.91
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 36.9 points. HOU are 4-1-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 22/37 | 244 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 27/36 | 328 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 20 | 92 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Ryan Moats | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.92