Closing spread
HOU -5.5
Total
43
Model margin
+5.2est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play-0.079
- 44.1%Success rate41.9%
- -0.001EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.154
- 10.0%Explosive rate6.9%
- -0.10CPOE-3.29
- 37.8%Third-down rate36.9%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.41Points / drive1.45
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 36.9 points. HOU are 4-1-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 16/29 | 216 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Langford | 17 | 57 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 6 | 105 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 4 | 6 | 57 | 1 |
| Kevin White | 3 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 22/35 | 231 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 28 | 106 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fuller | 5 | 11 | 107 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 8 | 54 | 1 |
| Stephen Anderson | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.58
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.85
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.17