2016 · Week 1

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

14·23

Texans

Houston

QB Brock Osweiler

NRG Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

HOU -5.5

Total

43

Model margin

+5.2est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapTexans
  • -0.042EPA / play-0.079
  • 44.1%Success rate41.9%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.154
  • 10.0%Explosive rate6.9%
  • -0.10CPOE-3.29
  • 37.8%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 52.5%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
  • 1.41Points / drive1.45
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 36.9 points. HOU are 4-1-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2CHI @ HOU13–19HOU
2022 · W3HOU @ CHI20–23CHI
2020 · W14HOU @ CHI7–36CHI
2012 · W10HOU @ CHI13–6HOU
2008 · W17CHI @ HOU24–31HOU
2004 · W15HOU @ CHI24–5HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00739Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 11:291060Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 6:58412Punt7–0
CHIQ1 4:1649Turnover on downs7–0
HOUQ1 2:441469Field goal7–3
CHIQ2 11:25613Punt7–3
HOUQ2 8:031061Touchdown7–10
CHIQ2 3:14420Punt7–10
HOUQ2 1:463-2Punt7–10
CHIQ2 0:38485Touchdown14–10
HOUQ2 0:0700End of half14–10
CHIQ3 15:0025Turnover14–10
HOUQ3 14:07525Field goal14–13
CHIQ3 12:173-2Punt14–13
HOUQ3 11:003-4Punt14–13
CHIQ3 9:56423Punt14–13
HOUQ3 7:42621Punt14–13
CHIQ3 3:3134Punt14–13
HOUQ3 2:36959Touchdown14–20
CHIQ4 12:44619Punt14–20
HOUQ4 9:01646Field goal14–23
CHIQ4 6:103-2Punt14–23
HOUQ4 4:45620Punt14–23
CHIQ4 2:00824Turnover on downs14–23
HOUQ4 0:1000End of half14–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler16/2921611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Langford17573.41
Jay Cutler2126.00
Ka'Deem Carey144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery461050
Eddie Royal46571
Kevin White37340
Zach Miller34140
Jeremy Langford2460
Logan Paulsen0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler22/3523121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller281063.80
Brock Osweiler4143.50
Alfred Blue144.00
Tyler Ervin133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Fuller5111071
DeAndre Hopkins58541
Stephen Anderson33250
Ryan Griffin22170
Lamar Miller44110
C.J. Fiedorowicz1260
Braxton Miller1360
Tyler Ervin1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.8%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.85
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.17