Closing spread
CHI -1
Total
34
Model margin
+0.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.022EPA / play-0.240
- 41.4%Success rate35.2%
- +0.060EPA / dropback-0.283
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.177
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.8%
- 38.7%Third-down rate25.7%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
- 1.44Points / drive0.78
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.004EPA / play allowed-0.102
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 36.9 points. CHI are 1-4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 13/28 | 220 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 25 | 95 | 3.8 | 1 |
| David Carr | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Hutchinson | 17/34 | 168 | 0 | 1 |
| Paul Edinger | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 15 | 40 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chad Hutchinson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 2 | -7 | -3.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.27