2024 · Week 2

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

13·19

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -6

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapTexans
  • -0.072EPA / play-0.038
  • 40.1%Success rate39.1%
  • -0.036EPA / dropback+0.008
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.120
  • 5.9%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -0.22CPOE-2.77
  • 33.1%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.84
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 36.9 points. HOU are 4-1-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W3HOU @ CHI20–23CHI
2020 · W14HOU @ CHI7–36CHI
2016 · W1CHI @ HOU14–23HOU
2012 · W10HOU @ CHI13–6HOU
2008 · W17CHI @ HOU24–31HOU
2004 · W15HOU @ CHI24–5HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00738Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 10:201042Field goal3–3
HOUQ1 3:51892Touchdown3–10
CHIQ2 14:5536Punt3–10
HOUQ2 13:33748Field goal3–13
CHIQ2 9:5578Punt3–13
HOUQ2 6:013-1Punt3–13
CHIQ2 3:42935Touchdown10–13
HOUQ2 0:32429Field goal10–16
CHIQ2 0:0100End of half10–16
CHIQ3 15:0037Punt10–16
HOUQ3 13:25523Punt10–16
CHIQ3 11:1246Punt10–16
HOUQ3 9:2430Punt10–16
CHIQ3 8:56623Punt10–16
HOUQ3 5:2752Punt10–16
CHIQ3 3:28611Turnover10–16
HOUQ3 0:50632Field goal10–19
CHIQ4 13:392-5Turnover10–19
HOUQ4 12:5530Punt10–19
CHIQ4 10:433-4Punt10–19
HOUQ4 9:24641Turnover10–19
CHIQ4 6:281256Field goal13–19
HOUQ4 2:5147Punt13–19
CHIQ4 1:37520Turnover on downs13–19
HOUQ4 0:3000End of half13–19

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams23/3717402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Caleb Williams5448.80
D'Andre Swift14181.30
Travis Homer166.00
Khalil Herbert231.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore610530
Rome Odunze25330
DeAndre Carter34320
Cole Kmet45270
D'Andre Swift45240
Khalil Herbert2240
Gerald Everett2310

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud23/3626010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers7324.60
Joe Mixon9252.80
Tank Dell3165.30
Dare Ogunbowale231.50
C.J. Stroud1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins8101351
Stefon Diggs46370
Joe Mixon35250
Dalton Schultz23210
Dare Ogunbowale22200
Cade Stover11180
Brevin Jordan1140
Cam Akers1130
Xavier Hutchinson0100
Tank Dell14-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.78