Closing spread
HOU -6
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play-0.038
- 40.1%Success rate39.1%
- -0.036EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.120
- 5.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- -0.22CPOE-2.77
- 33.1%Third-down rate38.2%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.65Points / drive1.84
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 36.9 points. HOU are 4-1-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 23/37 | 174 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 5 | 44 | 8.8 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 14 | 18 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 6 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 2 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 23/36 | 260 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 8 | 10 | 135 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.78