2020 · Week 14

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

7·36

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

HOU -1

Total

46

Model margin

+1.6est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBears
  • +0.093EPA / play-0.016
  • 47.8%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.073
  • 9.7%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +6.51CPOE+1.28
  • 43.5%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.97
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 36.9 points. CHI are 1-4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2CHI @ HOU13–19HOU
2022 · W3HOU @ CHI20–23CHI
2016 · W1CHI @ HOU14–23HOU
2012 · W10HOU @ CHI13–6HOU
2008 · W17CHI @ HOU24–31HOU
2004 · W15HOU @ CHI24–5HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–CHI
HOUQ1 15:00842Punt0–6
CHIQ1 10:16180Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 10:04415Turnover0–7
CHIQ1 8:463-5Punt0–7
HOUQ1 6:34420Punt0–7
CHIQ1 4:431278Touchdown0–14
HOUQ2 12:57886Touchdown7–14
CHIQ2 8:3738Punt7–14
HOUQ2 6:552-19Safety7–16
CHIQ2 6:04551Touchdown7–23
HOUQ2 3:22421Punt7–23
CHIQ2 1:451182Touchdown7–30
HOUQ2 0:0800End of half7–30
CHIQ3 15:00771Field goal7–33
HOUQ3 10:371872Turnover on downs7–33
CHIQ3 2:07312Punt7–33
HOUQ3 1:054-10Turnover on downs7–33
CHIQ4 15:00728Field goal7–36
HOUQ4 10:473-4Punt7–36
CHIQ4 9:0433Punt7–36
CHIQ4 8:2152Punt7–36
HOUQ4 4:191041End of half7–36

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson21/3021910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Buddy Howell11423.80
Deshaun Watson7385.40
Duke Johnson8263.30
C.J. Prosise122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Hansen77560
Duke Johnson22530
Steven Mitchell35380
Keke Coutee33241
Jordan Akins36200
Darren Fells11150
C.J. Prosise11100
Buddy Howell1230

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky24/3326730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery1111310.31
Cordarrelle Patterson6264.30
Mitchell Trubisky4235.80
Darnell Mooney155.00
Javon Wims122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson9131231
David Montgomery34420
Cole Kmet47410
Jimmy Graham44231
Darnell Mooney22221
Anthony Miller22160
Cordarrelle Patterson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

47.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.61