Closing spread
HOU -1
Total
46
Model margin
+1.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play-0.016
- 47.8%Success rate44.0%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.073
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- +6.51CPOE+1.28
- 43.5%Third-down rate34.8%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 2.25Points / drive1.97
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 36.9 points. CHI are 1-4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 21/30 | 219 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buddy Howell | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Hansen | 7 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 |
| Steven Mitchell | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Keke Coutee | 3 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Buddy Howell | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 24/33 | 267 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 11 | 113 | 10.3 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 9 | 13 | 123 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Anthony Miller | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
47.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.10
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.61