Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
40
Model margin
+0.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.167EPA / play-0.039
- 38.0%Success rate41.1%
- -0.147EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.204EPA / rush-0.004
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.4%
- -4.69CPOE-4.05
- 30.1%Third-down rate41.0%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate60.7%
- 1.17Points / drive1.78
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 36.9 points. CHI are 1-4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 20/32 | 245 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 20 | 80 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Moore | 3 | 3 | 63 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 8/17 | 106 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 20 | 157 | 7.8 | 2 |
| Justin Fields | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2 | 43 | 21.5 | 0 |
| Trestan Ebner | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Trestan Ebner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Tonges | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.38
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.33