2022 · Week 3

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

20·23

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

40

Model margin

+0.3est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBears
  • -0.167EPA / play-0.039
  • 38.0%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.147EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.204EPA / rush-0.004
  • 7.6%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -4.69CPOE-4.05
  • 30.1%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate60.7%
  • 1.17Points / drive1.78
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 36.9 points. CHI are 1-4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2CHI @ HOU13–19HOU
2020 · W14HOU @ CHI7–36CHI
2016 · W1CHI @ HOU14–23HOU
2012 · W10HOU @ CHI13–6HOU
2008 · W17CHI @ HOU24–31HOU
2004 · W15HOU @ CHI24–5HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00846Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 11:2236Punt0–3
CHIQ1 10:01781Touchdown0–10
HOUQ1 6:45773Touchdown7–10
CHIQ1 3:402-1Turnover7–10
HOUQ1 2:46434Turnover7–10
CHIQ1 0:4538Punt7–10
HOUQ2 13:3968Punt7–10
CHIQ2 11:4736Punt7–10
HOUQ2 9:39441Touchdown14–10
CHIQ2 7:321150Field goal14–13
HOUQ2 1:4839Punt14–13
CHIQ2 1:04525End of half14–13
HOUQ3 15:00749Field goal17–13
CHIQ3 11:25575Touchdown17–20
HOUQ3 8:251370Field goal20–20
CHIQ3 0:5434Turnover20–20
HOUQ4 14:493-9Punt20–20
CHIQ4 12:38949Punt20–20
HOUQ4 6:39739Punt20–20
CHIQ4 3:05420Punt20–20
HOUQ4 1:4239Turnover20–20
CHIQ4 1:0511Field goal20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills20/3224512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dameon Pierce20804.01
Rex Burkhead393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Moore33630
Nico Collins24410
Pharaoh Brown34310
Jordan Akins34311
Brandin Cooks27220
Rex Burkhead45210
Dameon Pierce22210
Phillip Dorsett11150
O.J. Howard0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields8/1710602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khalil Herbert201577.82
Justin Fields8475.90
Equanimeous St. Brown24321.50
Trestan Ebner7233.30
David Montgomery3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Kmet23400
Darnell Mooney26230
Equanimeous St. Brown12200
Khalil Herbert22120
Byron Pringle11110
Trestan Ebner0100
Jake Tonges0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.33