2012 · Week 10

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

13·6

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CHI -1

Total

37

Model margin

+2.5est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBears
  • +0.069EPA / play-0.041
  • 43.9%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.104
  • 9.4%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -0.02CPOE-0.76
  • 38.1%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 59.2%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.47
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 36.9 points. CHI are 1-4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2CHI @ HOU13–19HOU
2022 · W3HOU @ CHI20–23CHI
2020 · W14HOU @ CHI7–36CHI
2016 · W1CHI @ HOU14–23HOU
2008 · W17CHI @ HOU24–31HOU
2004 · W15HOU @ CHI24–5HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–CHI
HOUQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:2616Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 13:10111Field goal0–0
HOUQ1 12:2810Field goal0–0
HOUQ1 12:23526Field goal0–0
HOUQ1 9:1811Field goal0–0
HOUQ1 8:4013Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 8:13631Turnover3–0
HOUQ1 4:40613Turnover3–0
CHIQ1 2:24315Turnover3–0
HOUQ1 0:50419Turnover3–0
CHIQ2 14:1435Field goal3–3
HOUQ2 12:52623Punt3–3
CHIQ2 8:4437Punt3–3
HOUQ2 7:31766Touchdown10–3
CHIQ2 4:14612Turnover10–3
HOUQ2 1:163-6Punt10–3
CHIQ2 0:51423End of half10–3
CHIQ3 15:00840Punt10–3
HOUQ3 9:2833Punt10–3
CHIQ3 7:5536Punt10–3
HOUQ3 6:3838Punt10–3
CHIQ3 5:15551Field goal10–6
HOUQ3 1:55520Punt10–6
CHIQ4 13:40532Missed field goal10–6
HOUQ4 11:4033Punt10–6
CHIQ4 10:41410Punt10–6
HOUQ4 8:34624Field goal13–6
CHIQ4 4:493-1Punt13–6
HOUQ4 3:353-2Punt13–6
CHIQ4 2:35512Turnover on downs13–6
HOUQ4 1:0000End of half13–6

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub14/269512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster291023.50
Justin Forsett4276.80
Matt Schaub2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson410350
Kevin Walter23300
Arian Foster55151
Garrett Graham34150
James Casey0200
Keshawn Martin0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell11/199400
Jay Cutler7/144002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte16392.40
Jay Cutler33712.30
Michael Bush33411.30
Jason Campbell155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall8131070
Earl Bennett1290
Kyle Adams1170
Kellen Davis1560
Devin Hester2440
Matt Spaeth3340
Matt Forte25-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.55