Closing spread
CHI -1
Total
37
Model margin
+2.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play-0.041
- 43.9%Success rate39.6%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.104
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.02CPOE-0.76
- 38.1%Third-down rate36.4%
- 59.2%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.89Points / drive1.47
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 36.9 points. CHI are 1-4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 14/26 | 95 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 29 | 102 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 10 | 35 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 5 | 5 | 15 | 1 |
| Garrett Graham | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| James Casey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 11/19 | 94 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 7/14 | 40 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 16 | 39 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 8 | 13 | 107 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kyle Adams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.55