2009 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 16 games played. Vikings produced the widest margin at 37 points; the tightest finish was Commanders at Chargers, decided by 3.
Briefing7
Panthers start Matt Moore rather than Jake Delhomme, which the model treats as worth about 9.4 points for them.
Saints start Mark Brunell rather than Drew Brees, which the model treats as worth about 27.9 points against them.
Browns start Derek Anderson rather than Brady Quinn, which the model treats as worth about 7.7 points against them.
Lions start Daunte Culpepper rather than Matthew Stafford, which the model treats as worth about 1.3 points for them.
Colts lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.127, 0.004 clear of second.
Jets have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.170 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Ravens at Raiders, where it rates Raiders about 10.3 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats begin in 2016.
Slate
