2010 · Week 1

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jake Delhomme

14·17

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

TB -2.5

Total

37

Model margin

+8.2est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.077EPA / play+0.046
  • 40.5%Success rate42.0%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.133
  • 7.5%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +2.13CPOE+2.31
  • 37.8%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.88
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 4–3 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.7 points. TB are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CLE @ TB23–19CLE
2022 · W12TB @ CLE17–23CLE
2018 · W7CLE @ TB23–26TB
2014 · W9TB @ CLE17–22CLE
2006 · W16TB @ CLE22–7TB
2002 · W6CLE @ TB3–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–TB
TBQ1 15:00933Punt0–0
CLEQ1 8:56423Punt0–0
TBQ1 6:553-1Punt0–0
CLEQ1 5:03656Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 2:48533Field goal7–3
CLEQ1 0:501041Punt7–3
TBQ2 10:2431Punt7–3
CLEQ2 8:44563Touchdown14–3
TBQ2 5:351044Turnover14–3
CLEQ2 1:33414Turnover14–9
TBQ2 0:2613Touchdown14–10
CLEQ2 0:1815Missed field goal14–10
CLEQ3 15:00778Turnover14–10
TBQ3 10:5335Punt14–10
CLEQ3 9:2030Punt14–10
TBQ3 7:55218Punt14–10
TBQ3 6:4612Punt14–10
TBQ3 6:20211Punt14–10
CLEQ3 4:4634Punt14–10
TBQ3 3:11533Punt14–10
TBQ3 0:2400Punt14–10
CLEQ3 0:1110Punt14–10
CLEQ4 15:0026Punt14–10
TBQ4 13:27419Punt14–10
CLEQ4 10:4733Punt14–10
TBQ4 8:3720Touchdown14–10
TBQ4 8:26447Touchdown14–17
CLEQ4 6:4530Turnover14–17
TBQ4 6:17637Turnover14–17
CLEQ4 2:16716Turnover on downs14–17
TBQ4 0:5643Turnover on downs14–17
CLEQ4 0:34331End of half14–17

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme20/3722712
Josh Cribbs1/1900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Harrison9525.80
Peyton Hillis9414.61
Josh Cribbs3113.70
Jake Delhomme111.00
Benjamin Watson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Moore35870
Mohamed Massaquoi26461
Chansi Stuckey45300
Peyton Hillis45240
Benjamin Watson36160
Josh Cribbs22110
Seneca Wallace1190
Jerome Harrison1170
Brian Robiskie1460
Robert Royal0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman17/2818221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cadillac Williams22753.40
Josh Freeman23417.00
Earnest Graham6101.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Micheal Spurlock24491
Kellen Winslow46320
Sammie Stroughter25320
Mike Williams59301
Cadillac Williams22230
Jerramy Stevens1180
Earnest Graham1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.8%5.5%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.3%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.13
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.20