2010 · Week 1
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
TB -2.5
Total
37
Model margin
+8.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play+0.046
- 40.5%Success rate42.0%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.133
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.0%
- +2.13CPOE+2.31
- 37.8%Third-down rate42.5%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 1.31Points / drive1.88
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 34.7 points. TB are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 20/37 | 227 | 1 | 2 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Harrison | 9 | 52 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Moore | 3 | 5 | 87 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 2 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Robert Royal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 17/28 | 182 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 22 | 75 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micheal Spurlock | 2 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Kellen Winslow | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 5 | 9 | 30 | 1 |
| Cadillac Williams | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.20