2006 · Week 16
Final
Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
CLE -3.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.186EPA / play-0.197
- 37.6%Success rate38.3%
- -0.208EPA / dropback-0.178
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.231
- 6.4%Explosive rate6.4%
- -4.51CPOE+3.75
- 37.4%Third-down rate34.0%
- 43.2%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 0.82Points / drive1.01
- 3.1%Turnover rate4.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 34.7 points. CLE are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 16/26 | 212 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 16 | 86 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Earnest Graham | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 10/27 | 123 | 0 | 4 |
| Ken Dorsey | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 19 | 92 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.0%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.55
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.14