2006 · Week 16
Final
Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
CLE -3.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.186EPA / play-0.197
- 37.6%Success rate38.3%
- -0.208EPA / dropback-0.178
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.231
- 6.4%Explosive rate6.4%
- -4.51CPOE+3.75
- 37.4%Third-down rate34.0%
- 43.2%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 0.82Points / drive1.01
- 3.1%Turnover rate4.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 4–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.7 points. CLE are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 13:06 | 13 | 65 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q1 7:05 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 3:35 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q1 0:45 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| TB | Q2 14:50 | 8 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q2 10:54 | 5 | 28 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| TB | Q2 8:31 | 5 | 27 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| CLE | Q2 6:18 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 6–0 |
| TB | Q2 3:47 | 9 | 70 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| CLE | Q2 0:22 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–0 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 12–0 |
| CLE | Q3 9:20 | 10 | 48 | Missed field goal | 12–0 |
| TB | Q3 3:27 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 12–0 |
| CLE | Q3 0:15 | 3 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 19–0 |
| CLE | Q4 14:12 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 19–0 |
| TB | Q4 12:33 | 3 | -7 | Opp touchdown | 19–7 |
| TB | Q4 11:33 | 8 | 35 | Field goal | 22–7 |
| CLE | Q4 5:47 | 8 | 22 | Turnover on downs | 22–7 |
| TB | Q4 3:13 | 7 | 21 | End of half | 22–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 16/26 | 212 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 16 | 86 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Earnest Graham | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 10/27 | 123 | 0 | 4 |
| Ken Dorsey | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 19 | 92 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.0%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.55
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.14