2018 · Week 7

Final / OT

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

23·26

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

TB -3.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.009EPA / play+0.045
  • 42.8%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback+0.165
  • -0.091EPA / rush-0.229
  • 10.4%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -0.95CPOE+3.11
  • 35.9%Third-down rate46.7%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.93
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 4–3 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.7 points. TB are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CLE @ TB23–19CLE
2022 · W12TB @ CLE17–23CLE
2014 · W9TB @ CLE17–22CLE
2010 · W1CLE @ TB14–17TB
2006 · W16TB @ CLE22–7TB
2002 · W6CLE @ TB3–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–TB
CLEQ1 15:00819Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:302-1Safety2–0
CLEQ1 9:1847Punt2–0
TBQ1 7:281052Field goal2–3
CLEQ1 3:0232Punt2–3
TBQ1 1:38655Touchdown2–9
CLEQ2 14:5432Punt2–9
TBQ2 13:201276Touchdown2–16
CLEQ2 7:58641Punt2–16
TBQ2 4:18436Turnover2–16
CLEQ2 2:193-6Punt2–16
TBQ2 1:37326Turnover2–16
CLEQ2 0:5049Turnover on downs2–16
TBQ2 0:1800End of half2–16
TBQ3 15:0024Turnover2–16
CLEQ3 14:23326Touchdown9–16
TBQ3 13:011027Punt9–16
CLEQ3 10:29720Punt9–16
TBQ3 6:581373Touchdown9–23
CLEQ3 0:28851Touchdown16–23
TBQ4 12:17715Punt16–23
CLEQ4 9:3211104Turnover on downs16–23
TBQ4 4:5534Punt22–23
CLEQ4 2:36116Touchdown23–23
TBQ4 2:28958Missed field goal23–23
CLEOT414Punt23–23
TBOT528Turnover23–23
CLEOT30Punt23–23
TBOT32Punt23–23
TBOT52Field goal23–26

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield23/3421520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb18804.41
Baker Mayfield44310.80
Duke Johnson1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry1015971
David Njoku46521
Duke Johnson44230
Damion Ratley33230
Antonio Callaway12140
Breshad Perriman1160
Nick Chubb0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston32/5236502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jameis Winston10555.51
Peyton Barber11302.70
Ronald Jones6132.21
DeSean Jackson284.01
Jacquizz Rodgers382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans7111070
O.J. Howard59670
Chris Godwin Jr.56590
Adam Humphries49370
DeSean Jackson24250
Cameron Brate34230
Antony Auclair33150
Ronald Jones11150
Jacquizz Rodgers11110
Alan Cross1260
Peyton Barber0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.8%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.03