2018 · Week 7
Final / OT
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play+0.045
- 42.8%Success rate44.9%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.165
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.229
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.1%
- -0.95CPOE+3.11
- 35.9%Third-down rate46.7%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.75Points / drive1.93
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 34.7 points. TB are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 23/34 | 215 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 18 | 80 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 10 | 15 | 97 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 6 | 52 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Damion Ratley | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 32/52 | 365 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 10 | 55 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Peyton Barber | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 7 | 11 | 107 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 5 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 4 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Antony Auclair | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Alan Cross | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.71
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.03