2022 · Week 12
Final / OT
FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 14mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
42
Model margin
+1.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play+0.013
- 44.0%Success rate44.1%
- +0.052EPA / dropback+0.021
- -0.208EPA / rush+0.002
- 6.5%Explosive rate9.8%
- +0.30CPOE+1.05
- 38.1%Third-down rate39.0%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
- 1.63Points / drive1.91
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 34.7 points. CLE are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/43 | 246 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 12 | 13 | 110 | 1 |
| Rachaad White | 9 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Ko Kieft | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Breshad Perriman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 23/37 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 26 | 116 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 7 | 12 | 94 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 5 | 7 | 29 | 1 |
| David Bell | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.98