2022 · Week 12

Final / OT

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

17·23

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jacoby Brissett

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

TB -3

Total

42

Model margin

+1.0est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapBrowns
  • -0.030EPA / play+0.013
  • 44.0%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.052EPA / dropback+0.021
  • -0.208EPA / rush+0.002
  • 6.5%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +0.30CPOE+1.05
  • 38.1%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.91
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 4–3 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.7 points. CLE are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CLE @ TB23–19CLE
2018 · W7CLE @ TB23–26TB
2014 · W9TB @ CLE17–22CLE
2010 · W1CLE @ TB14–17TB
2006 · W16TB @ CLE22–7TB
2002 · W6CLE @ TB3–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00778Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 10:45980Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 5:11627Field goal7–10
TBQ1 2:2238Punt7–10
CLEQ1 1:08821Punt7–10
TBQ2 12:0138Punt7–10
CLEQ2 9:531059Missed field goal7–10
TBQ2 3:531057Field goal10–10
CLEQ2 0:3944Turnover10–10
TBQ3 15:0030Punt10–10
CLEQ3 12:5130Punt10–10
TBQ3 11:29780Touchdown17–10
CLEQ3 7:41523Punt17–10
TBQ3 5:0334Punt17–10
CLEQ3 2:543-12Punt17–10
TBQ3 0:13725Punt17–10
CLEQ4 12:33736Turnover on downs17–10
TBQ4 8:2037Punt17–10
CLEQ4 6:521013Punt17–10
TBQ4 2:353-10Punt17–10
CLEQ4 2:10646Touchdown17–17
TBQ4 0:32427End of half17–17
TBOT923Punt17–17
CLEOT41Punt17–17
TBOT516Punt17–17
CLEOT671Touchdown17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady29/4324620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White14644.60
Julio Jones11515.00
Ke'Shawn Vaughn4153.80
Tom Brady122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.12131101
Rachaad White99450
Julio Jones34400
Mike Evans29310
Cameron Brate25150
Ko Kieft1151
Breshad Perriman0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett23/3721011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb261164.51
Anthony Schwartz13131.01
Jacoby Brissett22713.50
Kareem Hunt5153.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper712940
David Njoku57291
David Bell46230
Anthony Schwartz12170
Nick Chubb11160
Donovan Peoples-Jones24160
Harrison Bryant2290
Kareem Hunt1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.98