2026 · Week 2
Scheduled
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
TB -8.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+11.0est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.206EPA / play-0.081
- 43.1%Success rate51.8%
- -0.257EPA / dropback-0.168
- -0.119EPA / rush+0.118
- 7.8%Explosive rate5.4%
- +10.32CPOE+14.02
- 12.5%Third-down rate50.0%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.11Points / drive1.44
- 3.9%Turnover rate7.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 34.7 points. TB are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
76.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+8.78
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+11.00