2026 · Week 2

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

23·19

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

TB -8.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.067EPA / play-0.091
  • 42.8%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.004EPA / dropback-0.151
  • -0.202EPA / rush-0.023
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.41CPOE-3.59
  • 32.6%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 51.2%Red-zone TD rate53.6%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.80
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 4–3 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.7 points. TB are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W12TB @ CLE17–23CLE
2018 · W7CLE @ TB23–26TB
2014 · W9TB @ CLE17–22CLE
2010 · W1CLE @ TB14–17TB
2006 · W16TB @ CLE22–7TB
2002 · W6CLE @ TB3–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–TB
CLEQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:16418Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 11:10645Field goal3–3
TBQ1 7:12548Field goal3–6
CLEQ1 4:023-2Punt3–6
TBQ1 2:28414Turnover3–6
CLEQ1 1:0955Field goal6–6
TBQ2 13:59726Punt6–6
CLEQ2 9:404-2Punt6–6
TBQ2 7:084-1Punt6–6
CLEQ2 4:4149Turnover on downs6–6
TBQ2 2:45821Field goal6–9
CLEQ2 0:1200End of half6–9
TBQ3 15:00965Touchdown6–16
CLEQ3 9:331058Field goal9–16
TBQ3 3:4548Punt9–16
CLEQ3 2:29468Touchdown16–16
TBQ3 1:2332Punt16–16
CLEQ4 14:48415Punt16–16
TBQ4 12:51671Field goal16–19
CLEQ4 9:581368Touchdown23–19
TBQ4 3:511141Turnover on downs23–19
CLEQ4 0:1800End of half23–19

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson24/3023820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deshaun Watson7223.10
Quinshon Judkins12211.80
Raheim Sanders242.00
Jaleel McLaughlin133.00
KC Concepcion1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Denzel Boston57951
Harold Fannin Jr.56540
KC Concepcion66280
Quinshon Judkins55270
Blake Whiteheart12171
Isaiah Bond11100
Raheim Sanders1170
Jerry Jeudy0100
Jaleel McLaughlin0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield21/3418211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving17895.20
Baker Mayfield4297.30
Chris Godwin Jr.11212.00
Kenny Gainwell2105.00
Emeka Egbuka1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tez Johnson14490
Chris Godwin Jr.33460
Cade Otton56380
Ted Hurst III27270
Emeka Egbuka35161
Kenny Gainwell3450
Bucky Irving4410

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.0%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.71