2014 · Week 9

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Mike Glennon

17·22

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brian Hoyer

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CLE -7

Total

44

Model margin

+1.1est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapBrowns
  • -0.111EPA / play-0.069
  • 38.5%Success rate38.1%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.190EPA / rush-0.130
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -1.50CPOE-7.11
  • 36.6%Third-down rate29.9%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.44
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 4–3 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35.7 points. CLE are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CLE @ TB23–19CLE
2022 · W12TB @ CLE17–23CLE
2018 · W7CLE @ TB23–26TB
2010 · W1CLE @ TB14–17TB
2006 · W16TB @ CLE22–7TB
2002 · W6CLE @ TB3–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CLE
TBQ1 15:001062Missed field goal0–0
CLEQ1 9:43746Field goal0–3
TBQ1 5:59636Missed field goal0–3
CLEQ1 4:06514Punt0–3
TBQ1 2:32518Turnover0–3
CLEQ1 0:21410Field goal0–6
TBQ2 13:34975Touchdown7–6
CLEQ2 8:4410Turnover7–6
TBQ2 8:302-5Turnover7–6
CLEQ2 7:3432Punt7–6
TBQ2 6:13642Field goal10–6
CLEQ2 2:25754Field goal10–9
CLEQ3 15:001177Touchdown10–16
TBQ3 9:10216Punt10–16
TBQ3 7:59517Punt10–16
TBQ3 4:5900Punt10–16
CLEQ3 4:5033Punt10–16
TBQ3 4:02345Touchdown17–16
CLEQ3 2:493-2Punt17–16
TBQ3 1:0238Punt17–16
CLEQ4 14:45861Turnover17–16
TBQ4 11:3040Punt17–16
CLEQ4 9:42235Touchdown17–22
TBQ4 8:59511Punt17–22
CLEQ4 6:58825Punt17–22
TBQ4 2:37640Turnover on downs17–22
CLEQ4 1:3945Turnover on downs17–22

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon17/3326022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bobby Rainey19874.60
Mike Glennon3175.70
Mike James492.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans7111242
Vincent Jackson612860
Bobby Rainey13340
Louis Murphy24130
Austin Seferian-Jenkins1330

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer21/3430022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrance West15483.20
Brian Hoyer252.50
Ben Tate1030.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Taylor Gabriel56871
Miles Austin35540
Travis Benjamin24520
Andrew Hawkins38340
Ben Tate44290
Jim Dray11260
Gary Barnidge24160
Terrance West1121

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

4.56%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.9%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.50
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.92
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.07