2014 · Week 9
Final
FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
CLE -7
Total
44
Model margin
+1.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.111EPA / play-0.069
- 38.5%Success rate38.1%
- -0.069EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.130
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.1%
- -1.50CPOE-7.11
- 36.6%Third-down rate29.9%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
- 1.33Points / drive1.44
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 34.7 points. CLE are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 17/33 | 260 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Rainey | 19 | 87 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Mike James | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 7 | 11 | 124 | 2 |
| Vincent Jackson | 6 | 12 | 86 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 21/34 | 300 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 10 | 3 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Gabriel | 5 | 6 | 87 | 1 |
| Miles Austin | 3 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 2 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 3 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.50
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.92
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.07