2002 · Week 6
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
TB -7.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.043
- 42.2%Success rate42.2%
- +0.050EPA / dropback+0.019
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.146
- 7.9%Explosive rate6.9%
- 40.7%Third-down rate35.3%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate41.7%
- 1.59Points / drive1.22
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.025EPA / play allowed-0.206
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 34.7 points. TB are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 20/40 | 151 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| William Green | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Northcutt | 4 | 5 | 74 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 10 | 13 | 34 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Steve Heiden | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 2 | 8 | 11 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 15/32 | 194 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 7 | 95 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 4 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Rickey Dudley | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.86