Closing spread
NO -1
Total
45
Model margin
+0.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.039
- 40.3%Success rate46.2%
- +0.166EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.117
- 10.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- +3.44CPOE+5.83
- 44.1%Third-down rate48.8%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.89Points / drive1.88
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 52.7 points. NO are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/28 | 195 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 34/44 | 305 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Meachem | 6 | 6 | 76 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 6 | 9 | 75 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 7 | 8 | 54 | 1 |
| Devery Henderson | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.77