2010 · Week 8

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

10·20

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Louisiana Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -1

Total

45

Model margin

+0.8est.

NO perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapSaints
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.039
  • 40.3%Success rate46.2%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback+0.121
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.117
  • 10.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +3.44CPOE+5.83
  • 44.1%Third-down rate48.8%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.88
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 4–3 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. NO are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7PIT @ NO16–10PIT
2022 · W10NO @ PIT10–20PIT
2018 · W16PIT @ NO28–31NO
2014 · W13NO @ PIT35–32NO
2006 · W10NO @ PIT31–38PIT
2002 · W5PIT @ NO29–32NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–NO
PITQ1 15:00518Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:10518Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:16314Punt0–0
NOQ1 8:04720Punt0–0
PITQ1 4:04420Punt0–0
NOQ1 1:5139Punt0–0
PITQ1 0:20938Field goal3–0
NOQ2 9:09626Punt3–0
PITQ2 5:12518Punt3–0
NOQ2 2:292-10Turnover3–0
PITQ2 1:51613Missed field goal3–0
NOQ2 1:11756Field goal3–3
PITQ2 0:0800End of half3–3
NOQ3 15:001248Field goal3–6
PITQ3 8:24830Turnover on downs3–6
NOQ3 4:081059Touchdown3–13
PITQ4 12:55468Touchdown10–13
NOQ4 10:48654Turnover10–13
PITQ4 8:01339Turnover10–13
NOQ4 6:24840Touchdown10–20
PITQ4 2:37423Turnover10–20
NOQ4 1:4000End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger17/2819501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall15714.71
Mewelde Moore2199.50
Isaac Redman3196.30
Ben Roethlisberger1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace34430
Heath Miller22390
Antwaan Randle El36330
Matt Spaeth22210
Emmanuel Sanders12210
Hines Ward36150
Rashard Mendenhall23140
David Johnson1190
Mewelde Moore0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees34/4430521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Julius Jones7162.30
Ladell Betts382.70
Chris Ivory771.00
Marques Colston111.00
Drew Brees3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Meachem66760
Marques Colston69751
Lance Moore78541
Devery Henderson34330
Jeremy Shockey34300
Julius Jones34200
David Thomas44150
Ladell Betts1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.77