Closing spread
NO -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.006
- 43.3%Success rate39.0%
- +0.070EPA / dropback+0.038
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.2%
- 42.2%Third-down rate40.9%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.71Points / drive1.94
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.086EPA / play allowed-0.005
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 52.7 points. NO are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 22/38 | 268 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 19 | 84 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Amos Zereoue | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 3 | 5 | 84 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 4 | 7 | 59 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 5 | 9 | 45 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Mark Bruener | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 13/23 | 205 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 23 | 123 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Joe Horn | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| James Fenderson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Pathon | 2 | 3 | 79 | 1 |
| Joe Horn | 5 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael L. Lewis | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.20