2006 · Week 10

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

31·38

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · dessograss · 39°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PIT -6.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.072EPA / play+0.004
  • 44.8%Success rate43.1%
  • +0.157EPA / dropback+0.069
  • -0.049EPA / rush-0.085
  • 9.5%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +2.07CPOE+1.04
  • 45.7%Third-down rate43.2%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate48.8%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.68
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 52.7 points. PIT are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W10NO @ PIT10–20PIT
2018 · W16PIT @ NO28–31NO
2014 · W13NO @ PIT35–32NO
2010 · W8PIT @ NO10–20NO
2002 · W5PIT @ NO29–32NO

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees31/4739810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deuce McAllister15604.02
Reggie Bush10494.91
Drew Brees3144.70

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger17/2826430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willie Parker222139.72
Najeh Davenport231.50
Ben Roethlisberger210.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

4.69%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.50
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.06