Closing spread
PIT -6.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play+0.004
- 44.8%Success rate43.1%
- +0.157EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.085
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- +2.07CPOE+1.04
- 45.7%Third-down rate43.2%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate48.8%
- 1.91Points / drive1.68
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 4–3 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. PIT are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 50 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 11:56 | 2 | 10 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 11:12 | 8 | 32 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| NO | Q1 6:49 | 12 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| PIT | Q1 0:43 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 7–14 |
| NO | Q2 13:26 | 12 | 68 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| PIT | Q2 8:22 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NO | Q2 6:09 | 8 | 56 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| PIT | Q2 2:22 | 6 | 51 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| NO | Q2 1:20 | 5 | 72 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| PIT | Q2 0:20 | 2 | 25 | End of half | 24–17 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 24–17 |
| PIT | Q3 12:32 | 10 | 73 | Missed field goal | 24–17 |
| NO | Q3 7:42 | 3 | 18 | Turnover | 24–23 |
| PIT | Q3 7:03 | 1 | 38 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| NO | Q3 6:55 | 6 | 55 | Missed field goal | 24–24 |
| PIT | Q3 3:29 | 6 | 78 | Touchdown | 24–31 |
| NO | Q4 14:55 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 24–31 |
| PIT | Q4 10:50 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–38 |
| NO | Q4 9:55 | 4 | 65 | Touchdown | 31–38 |
| PIT | Q4 8:05 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 31–38 |
| NO | Q4 4:31 | 12 | 51 | Turnover | 31–38 |
| PIT | Q4 0:39 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 31/47 | 398 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Reggie Bush | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/28 | 264 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 22 | 213 | 9.7 | 2 |
| Najeh Davenport | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
4.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.06