Closing spread
NO -6.5
Total
53
Model margin
+2.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play+0.156
- 47.5%Success rate49.9%
- +0.194EPA / dropback+0.284
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.011
- 9.0%Explosive rate10.2%
- +1.39CPOE+5.42
- 43.9%Third-down rate46.3%
- 73.7%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 2.23Points / drive2.94
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 52.7 points. NO are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 33/50 | 380 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Samuels | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 14 | 19 | 185 | 2 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 11 | 15 | 115 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 3 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Eli Rogers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Washington | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 27/39 | 326 | 1 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 11 | 13 | 109 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 5 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
4.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.18