2018 · Week 16

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

28·31

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -6.5

Total

53

Model margin

+2.2est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapSaints
  • +0.102EPA / play+0.156
  • 47.5%Success rate49.9%
  • +0.194EPA / dropback+0.284
  • -0.112EPA / rush-0.011
  • 9.0%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +1.39CPOE+5.42
  • 43.9%Third-down rate46.3%
  • 73.7%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 2.23Points / drive2.94
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 4–3 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. NO are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7PIT @ NO16–10PIT
2022 · W10NO @ PIT10–20PIT
2014 · W13NO @ PIT35–32NO
2010 · W8PIT @ NO10–20NO
2006 · W10NO @ PIT31–38PIT
2002 · W5PIT @ NO29–32NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–NO
PITQ1 15:00418Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:58534Turnover0–0
PITQ1 10:18829Field goal3–0
NOQ1 5:32742Touchdown3–7
PITQ1 2:57972Field goal6–7
NOQ2 14:05953Touchdown6–14
PITQ2 10:223-1Punt6–14
NOQ2 9:26411Punt6–14
PITQ2 6:441677Touchdown14–14
NOQ2 0:40350Field goal14–17
PITQ2 0:0200End of half14–17
NOQ3 15:001175Touchdown14–24
PITQ3 9:131080Touchdown21–24
NOQ3 4:484-2Punt21–24
PITQ3 2:38466Touchdown28–24
NOQ3 1:0238Punt28–24
PITQ4 14:49840Turnover28–24
NOQ4 10:12748Missed field goal28–24
PITQ4 6:1349Turnover on downs28–24
NOQ4 4:061252Touchdown28–31
PITQ4 1:25740Turnover28–31
NOQ4 0:3200End of half28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger33/5038030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Samuels12534.40
Ben Roethlisberger242.00
Stevan Ridley341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown14191852
JuJu Smith-Schuster11151150
Vance McDonald14490
Ryan Switzer33180
Jaylen Samuels33111
Eli Rogers1120
Xavier Grimble0100
James Washington0200

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees27/3932610
Taysom Hill0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram11353.21
Alvin Kamara7233.32
Drew Brees1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas11131091
Alvin Kamara46820
Ted Ginn58740
Keith Kirkwood24350
Tre'Quan Smith11110
Mark Ingram1280
Benjamin Watson1260
Josh Hill2310

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

4.70%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

47.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.18