2014 · Week 13

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

35·32

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

54.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.067EPA / play+0.118
  • 47.9%Success rate48.4%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.084
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +3.60CPOE+5.59
  • 48.2%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.26
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 4–3 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. PIT are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7PIT @ NO16–10PIT
2022 · W10NO @ PIT10–20PIT
2018 · W16PIT @ NO28–31NO
2010 · W8PIT @ NO10–20NO
2006 · W10NO @ PIT31–38PIT
2002 · W5PIT @ NO29–32NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–PIT
PITQ1 15:00738Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:44523Punt0–0
PITQ1 9:42734Field goal0–3
NOQ1 6:0534Punt0–3
PITQ1 5:051260Field goal0–6
NOQ2 14:05515Punt0–6
PITQ2 11:2536Punt0–6
NOQ2 9:47879Touchdown7–6
PITQ2 6:04315Turnover7–6
NOQ2 4:22980Touchdown14–6
PITQ2 0:36644Missed field goal14–6
NOQ3 15:0037Punt14–6
PITQ3 13:26313Turnover14–6
NOQ3 12:08215Touchdown21–6
PITQ3 11:251383Touchdown21–13
NOQ3 4:21589Touchdown28–13
PITQ3 1:50449Field goal28–16
NOQ4 14:521072Touchdown35–16
PITQ4 10:25830Turnover on downs35–16
NOQ4 7:5735Punt35–16
PITQ4 5:541586Touchdown35–24
NOQ4 2:3434Punt35–24
PITQ4 1:02580Touchdown35–32

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees19/2725750

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram231225.30
Pierre Thomas3217.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Stills561621
Nick Toon22171
Josh Hill12170
Marques Colston35161
Pierre Thomas24160
Benjamin Watson12151
Travaris Cadet22110
Mark Ingram22-10

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger32/5843522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell21954.51
Ben Roethlisberger188.00
Dri Archer100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Le'Veon Bell8111590
Antonio Brown812972
Heath Miller814820
Markus Wheaton59610
Martavis Bryant14230
Lance Moore25130
Darrius Heyward-Bey0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.3%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.98