Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play+0.118
- 47.9%Success rate48.4%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.084
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.0%
- +3.60CPOE+5.59
- 48.2%Third-down rate45.6%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 2.11Points / drive2.26
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 52.7 points. PIT are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 19/27 | 257 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 23 | 122 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 5 | 6 | 162 | 1 |
| Nick Toon | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 3 | 5 | 16 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Travaris Cadet | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 32/58 | 435 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 21 | 95 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Dri Archer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 8 | 11 | 159 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 8 | 12 | 97 | 2 |
| Heath Miller | 8 | 14 | 82 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 5 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.93
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.98