Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Steelers
- OutBen SkowronekWRCalf· DNP
- OutBrandin EcholsCBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableDeShon ElliottSKnee· Full
- QuestionableRico DowdleRBKnee· Limited
- DNPSebastian Joseph-DayDETriceps
Saints
- QuestionableCesar RuizGKnee· Limited
- QuestionableNathan ShepherdDTIllness· DNP
- LimitedAlvin KamaraRBBack
Win probability
- Saints
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play-0.031
- 42.3%Success rate41.9%
- -0.063EPA / dropback+0.041
- +0.043EPA / rush-0.169
- 8.1%Explosive rate6.1%
- -1.45CPOE+0.08
- 36.8%Third-down rate43.6%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate76.7%
- 1.79Points / drive2.19
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 4–3 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. NO are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 51 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NO | Q1 10:51 | 11 | 42 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 5:21 | 13 | 52 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NO | Q2 13:17 | 6 | 62 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| PIT | Q2 10:17 | 7 | 92 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| NO | Q2 6:45 | 12 | 52 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| PIT | Q2 1:45 | 10 | 55 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 68 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| PIT | Q3 7:32 | 13 | 51 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| NO | Q3 0:14 | 10 | 51 | Missed field goal | 16–10 |
| PIT | Q4 9:27 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 16–10 |
| NO | Q4 7:04 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 16–10 |
| PIT | Q4 5:52 | 9 | 46 | End of half | 16–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/30 | 212 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 18 | 101 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 2 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 6 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Germie Bernard | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Brandon Smith | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 30/38 | 278 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 8 | 6 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Barion Brown | 3 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 6 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 5 | 5 | 54 | 1 |
| Kendre Miller | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Bryce Lance | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Oscar Delp | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.81