Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+2.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Steelersedge mapSaints
- -0.251EPA / play+0.030
- 33.8%Success rate44.3%
- -0.251EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.252EPA / rush-0.075
- 6.2%Explosive rate9.1%
- +1.23CPOE-1.21
- 25.0%Third-down rate47.1%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 1.00Points / drive2.20
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 52.7 points. NO are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.03