2022 · Week 10

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Andy Dalton

10·20

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

PIT -1

Total

39.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.037EPA / play+0.012
  • 45.5%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.018EPA / dropback+0.016
  • -0.109EPA / rush+0.006
  • 8.6%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +1.61CPOE+1.33
  • 40.9%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.65
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 4–3 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.9 points. PIT are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7PIT @ NO16–10PIT
2018 · W16PIT @ NO28–31NO
2014 · W13NO @ PIT35–32NO
2010 · W8PIT @ NO10–20NO
2006 · W10NO @ PIT31–38PIT
2002 · W5PIT @ NO29–32NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–PIT
PITQ1 15:00621Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:0434Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:591346Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 5:06528Punt0–7
PITQ1 2:11850Field goal0–10
NOQ2 14:17415Punt0–10
PITQ2 12:3837Punt0–10
NOQ2 10:44840Field goal3–10
PITQ2 6:401026Punt3–10
NOQ2 1:53756Touchdown10–10
PITQ2 0:1925End of half10–10
NOQ3 15:0048Punt10–10
PITQ3 13:34959Missed field goal10–10
NOQ3 8:55620Punt10–10
PITQ3 5:051178Field goal10–13
NOQ4 13:4335Turnover10–13
PITQ4 12:16940Touchdown10–20
NOQ4 8:3849Turnover on downs10–20
PITQ4 7:4434Missed field goal10–20
NOQ4 5:3331Turnover10–20
PITQ4 4:23945End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton17/2717412
Taysom Hill0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara8263.30
Andy Dalton310.30
Jordan Howard111.00
Taysom Hill310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Juwan Johnson57441
Chris Olave35400
Jarvis Landry36370
Adam Trautman23220
Alvin Kamara34190
Rashid Shaheed11120
Kevin White0200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett18/3019900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris20995.00
Kenny Pickett8516.41
Jaylen Warren9374.10
George Pickens22311.51
Steven Sims221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson45630
Jaylen Warren33400
Pat Freiermuth47360
George Pickens34320
Steven Sims12150
Gunner Olszewski1140
Zach Gentry0100
Najee Harris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.64
  • Expected margin+3.15