Closing spread
PIT -1
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.037EPA / play+0.012
- 45.5%Success rate45.1%
- +0.018EPA / dropback+0.016
- -0.109EPA / rush+0.006
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.9%
- +1.61CPOE+1.33
- 40.9%Third-down rate43.5%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 1.59Points / drive1.65
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 52.7 points. PIT are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 17/27 | 174 | 1 | 2 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson | 5 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| Chris Olave | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Kevin White | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 18/30 | 199 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 20 | 99 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 1 |
| Steven Sims | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 4 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+3.15