2013 · Week 1
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 82°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -4
Total
40
Model margin
+5.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.105
- 37.6%Success rate37.6%
- -0.049EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.104
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.72CPOE-4.00
- 31.1%Third-down rate38.8%
- 56.4%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
- 1.34Points / drive1.25
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37.3 points. NYJ are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 15/31 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 24 | 65 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Josh Freeman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 7 | 13 | 154 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 8 | 52 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Nate Byham | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 2 | 6 | -1 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 24/38 | 256 | 1 | 1 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 10 | 15 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 7 | 8 | 79 | 1 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Stephen Hill | 6 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Konrad Reuland | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.4%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.17
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.02