2013 · Week 1

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

17·18

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 82°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TB -4

Total

40

Model margin

+5.0est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapJets
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.105
  • 37.6%Success rate37.6%
  • -0.049EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.147EPA / rush-0.104
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.72CPOE-4.00
  • 31.1%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 56.4%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.25
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37.3 points. NYJ are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3NYJ @ TB27–29TB
2021 · W17TB @ NYJ28–24TB
2017 · W10NYJ @ TB10–15TB
2009 · W14NYJ @ TB26–3NYJ
2005 · W5TB @ NYJ12–14NYJ
2000 · W4NYJ @ TB21–17NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NYJ
TBQ1 15:00621Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:45433Punt0–0
TBQ1 9:3040Safety0–2
NYJQ1 8:3536Punt0–2
TBQ1 6:563-4Punt0–2
NYJQ1 4:3731Punt0–2
TBQ1 3:46544Touchdown7–2
NYJQ1 1:071255Field goal7–5
TBQ2 11:01745Punt7–5
NYJQ2 7:031-6Turnover13–5
TBQ2 6:5115Touchdown14–5
NYJQ2 6:46725Turnover14–5
TBQ2 4:0533Turnover14–5
NYJQ2 2:33726Touchdown14–12
TBQ2 0:3417End of half14–12
NYJQ3 15:00939Punt14–12
TBQ3 10:201250Punt14–12
NYJQ3 5:04612Punt14–12
TBQ3 2:163-2Punt14–12
NYJQ3 1:22313Punt14–12
TBQ4 14:14629Punt14–12
NYJQ4 11:251360Field goal14–15
TBQ4 5:053-9Punt14–15
NYJQ4 3:2535Punt14–15
TBQ4 2:14861Field goal17–15
NYJQ4 0:34335Field goal17–18
TBQ4 0:0200Turnover17–18

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman15/3121011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin24652.71
Josh Freeman100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson7131540
Mike Williams48521
Brian Leonard1140
Nate Byham1110
Kevin Ogletree0200
Doug Martin26-10

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith24/3825611
Jeremy Kerley0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Geno Smith6477.80
Bilal Powell12292.40
Chris Ivory10151.50
Jeremy Kerley1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kellen Winslow78791
Jeremy Kerley34450
Stephen Hill69390
Bilal Powell45350
Clyde Gates14170
Santonio Holmes13130
Konrad Reuland1170
Chris Ivory0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -43.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.4%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.17
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.02