2017 · Week 10
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 16mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.004
- 38.5%Success rate44.2%
- -0.000EPA / dropback+0.090
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.167
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.5%
- +0.98CPOE+3.38
- 36.0%Third-down rate42.9%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.51Points / drive1.79
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37.3 points. TB are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 23/39 | 262 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| ArDarius Stewart | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 7 | 85 | 1 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 6 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 4 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Chad Hansen | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Neal Sterling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| ArDarius Stewart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 17/34 | 187 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 20 | 51 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 6 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| Doug Martin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Freddie Martino | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.19
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.05