2017 · Week 10

Final

Jets

New York

QB Josh McCown

10·15

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

TB -1

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.073EPA / play+0.004
  • 38.5%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.000EPA / dropback+0.090
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.167
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.5%
  • +0.98CPOE+3.38
  • 36.0%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.79
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37.3 points. TB are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3NYJ @ TB27–29TB
2021 · W17TB @ NYJ28–24TB
2013 · W1TB @ NYJ17–18NYJ
2009 · W14NYJ @ TB26–3NYJ
2005 · W5TB @ NYJ12–14NYJ
2000 · W4NYJ @ TB21–17NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–TB
NYJQ1 15:0045Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:0638Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:12539Punt0–0
TBQ1 8:501687Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 0:54510Punt0–3
TBQ2 13:493-4Punt0–3
NYJQ2 11:3531Turnover0–3
TBQ2 10:4010Turnover0–3
NYJQ2 10:3235Punt0–3
TBQ2 9:1136Punt0–3
NYJQ2 7:231756Field goal3–3
TBQ3 15:00954Field goal3–6
NYJQ3 10:4237Punt3–6
TBQ3 9:42410Punt3–6
NYJQ3 8:2039Punt3–6
TBQ3 6:0831Punt3–6
NYJQ3 5:17420Turnover3–6
TBQ3 3:25727Field goal3–9
NYJQ3 0:2933Punt3–9
TBQ4 13:301778Touchdown3–15
NYJQ4 6:051365Turnover on downs3–15
TBQ4 2:2735Punt3–15
NYJQ4 1:53655Touchdown10–15
TBQ4 0:2800End of half10–15

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown23/3926211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell10303.00
Elijah McGuire8222.80
ArDarius Stewart144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen47851
Austin Seferian-Jenkins69670
Elijah McGuire47360
Jermaine Kearse48350
Chad Hansen34330
Bilal Powell1260
Neal Sterling0100
ArDarius Stewart1100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick17/3418711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin20512.50
Charles Sims3206.70
Jacquizz Rodgers3124.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick393.00
Peyton Barber2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson610820
Chris Godwin Jr.510680
Adam Humphries24170
Cameron Brate13100
Charles Sims34101
Doug Martin0200
Freddie Martino0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.19
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.05