2005 · Week 5
Final
Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 57°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
32
Model margin
+0.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.124
- 39.7%Success rate40.1%
- -0.064EPA / dropback-0.093
- -0.068EPA / rush-0.171
- 6.8%Explosive rate5.7%
- 38.9%Third-down rate35.3%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate39.0%
- 1.36Points / drive1.30
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.097EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37.3 points. NYJ are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 27/42 | 226 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 13/19 | 163 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 23 | 59 | 2.6 | 2 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.36
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.45