2009 · Week 14

Final

Jets

New York

QB Kellen Clemens

26·3

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

-4.6est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.060EPA / play-0.156
  • 39.7%Success rate36.1%
  • -0.151EPA / dropback-0.138
  • +0.011EPA / rush-0.188
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -5.62CPOE-5.15
  • 37.4%Third-down rate33.0%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.06
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37.3 points. TB are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3NYJ @ TB27–29TB
2021 · W17TB @ NYJ28–24TB
2017 · W10NYJ @ TB10–15TB
2013 · W1TB @ NYJ17–18NYJ
2005 · W5TB @ NYJ12–14NYJ
2000 · W4NYJ @ TB21–17NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–TB
TBQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 14:4539Field goal3–0
TBQ1 12:403-2Punt3–0
NYJQ1 11:131358Field goal6–0
TBQ1 4:47310Punt6–0
NYJQ1 3:0634Punt6–0
TBQ1 1:3448Punt6–0
NYJQ2 14:4868Punt6–0
TBQ2 12:023-6Punt6–0
NYJQ2 10:43627Field goal9–0
TBQ2 6:5335Punt9–0
NYJQ2 5:10458Touchdown16–0
TBQ2 3:1931Punt16–0
NYJQ2 1:08731Field goal19–0
TBQ2 0:1100End of half19–0
NYJQ3 15:0035Punt19–0
TBQ3 13:1335Punt19–0
NYJQ3 12:07330Turnover19–0
TBQ3 10:361015Field goal19–3
NYJQ3 4:4500Punt19–3
TBQ3 4:4138Punt19–3
NYJQ3 3:011161Missed field goal19–3
TBQ4 11:18622Turnover25–3
NYJQ4 9:1417Touchdown26–3
TBQ4 9:07624Turnover on downs26–3
NYJQ4 6:5638Punt26–3
TBQ4 4:44315Turnover26–3
NYJQ4 4:0635Punt26–3
TBQ4 2:23620Turnover on downs26–3
NYJQ4 0:3600End of half26–3

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kellen Clemens12/2311100
Brad Smith1/12700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones24994.12
Shonn Greene6416.80
Danny Woodhead4174.30
Brad Smith5163.20
Kellen Clemens320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Braylon Edwards35370
Danny Woodhead34350
Jerricho Cotchery15260
David Clowney1160
Brad Smith1240
Dustin Keller1330
Matthew Mulligan1120
Thomas Jones11-20

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman14/339303

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Freeman4215.30
Cadillac Williams11141.30
Derrick Ward461.50
Earnest Graham122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kellen Winslow49260
Antonio Bryant26220
Brian Clark37200
Derrick Ward22110
Maurice Stovall2490
John Gilmore1150
Jerramy Stevens0200
Earnest Graham0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.0%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.5%3.6%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.9%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.35
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-4.61