2009 · Week 14
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
-4.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play-0.156
- 39.7%Success rate36.1%
- -0.151EPA / dropback-0.138
- +0.011EPA / rush-0.188
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.3%
- -5.62CPOE-5.15
- 37.4%Third-down rate33.0%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.61Points / drive1.06
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37.3 points. TB are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Clemens | 12/23 | 111 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1/1 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 24 | 99 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Shonn Greene | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braylon Edwards | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| David Clowney | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Matthew Mulligan | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 14/33 | 93 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 11 | 14 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 4 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Brian Clark | 3 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Maurice Stovall | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.9%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.35
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-4.61