2021 · Week 17

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

28·24

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 57°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TB -14.5

Total

48

Model margin

-5.8est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapJets
  • +0.143EPA / play-0.072
  • 49.9%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.197EPA / dropback-0.066
  • +0.024EPA / rush-0.084
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +1.50CPOE-7.25
  • 48.0%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 2.51Points / drive1.70
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37.3 points. NYJ are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3NYJ @ TB27–29TB
2017 · W10NYJ @ TB10–15TB
2013 · W1TB @ NYJ17–18NYJ
2009 · W14NYJ @ TB26–3NYJ
2005 · W5TB @ NYJ12–14NYJ
2000 · W4NYJ @ TB21–17NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00767Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 12:041365Touchdown7–7
NYJQ1 5:431378Touchdown7–14
TBQ2 13:43654Field goal10–14
NYJQ2 10:50535Punt10–14
TBQ2 8:44943Punt10–14
NYJQ2 2:24641Punt10–14
TBQ2 0:54444Turnover10–14
NYJQ2 0:16219Field goal10–17
TBQ2 0:0100End of half10–17
TBQ3 15:00617Punt10–17
NYJQ3 12:08966Touchdown10–24
TBQ3 6:561389Touchdown17–24
NYJQ3 0:293-10Punt17–24
TBQ4 14:00524Punt17–24
NYJQ4 12:0530Punt17–24
TBQ4 11:15738Field goal20–24
NYJQ4 7:361168Turnover on downs20–24
TBQ4 2:12993Touchdown28–24
NYJQ4 0:15210Turnover28–24

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady34/5041031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn8313.90
Ronald Jones10262.60
Le'Veon Bell351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski7101150
Cyril Grayson68811
Tyler Johnson46500
Mike Evans47471
Breshad Perriman23410
Le'Veon Bell33300
Antonio Brown35260
Ke'Shawn Vaughn23140
Cameron Brate2351
Ronald Jones1110

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson19/3323410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Carter35418.00
Austin Walter14493.50
Ty Johnson5357.01
Braxton Berrios2126.01
Zach Wilson200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Braxton Berrios812651
Ty Johnson34470
Kenny Yeboah22360
Keelan Cole25350
Daniel Brown22290
Jeff Smith14130
Michael Carter1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.53.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

34.0%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.75