2021 · Week 17
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 57°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -14.5
Total
48
Model margin
-5.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.143EPA / play-0.072
- 49.9%Success rate42.1%
- +0.197EPA / dropback-0.066
- +0.024EPA / rush-0.084
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- +1.50CPOE-7.25
- 48.0%Third-down rate37.8%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 2.51Points / drive1.70
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37.3 points. NYJ are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 34/50 | 410 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 10 | 115 | 0 |
| Cyril Grayson | 6 | 8 | 81 | 1 |
| Tyler Johnson | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 7 | 47 | 1 |
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 19/33 | 234 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 3 | 54 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Austin Walter | 14 | 49 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Zach Wilson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Berrios | 8 | 12 | 65 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Kenny Yeboah | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
34.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.75