2000 · Week 4

Final

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

21·17

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Shaun King

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TB -7

Total

36

Model margin

+4.0est.

TB perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.073EPA / play-0.016
  • 39.6%Success rate39.8%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.086
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.9%
  • 37.5%Third-down rate33.9%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
  • 1.29Points / drive1.46
  • 3.5%Turnover rate2.0%
  • -0.101EPA / play allowed-0.114

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37.3 points. TB are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3NYJ @ TB27–29TB
2021 · W17TB @ NYJ28–24TB
2017 · W10NYJ @ TB10–15TB
2013 · W1TB @ NYJ17–18NYJ
2009 · W14NYJ @ TB26–3NYJ
2005 · W5TB @ NYJ12–14NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–TB
NYJQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:393-1Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:4034Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:08483Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 7:28962Field goal3–3
TBQ1 2:111375Touchdown3–10
NYJQ2 11:5335Punt3–10
TBQ2 9:59523Punt3–10
NYJQ2 6:341181Field goal6–10
TBQ2 1:1521Turnover6–10
NYJQ2 0:4222Turnover6–10
TBQ2 0:2200End of half6–10
TBQ3 15:0037Punt6–10
NYJQ3 13:0836Punt6–10
TBQ3 11:5810Turnover6–10
NYJQ3 11:5135Punt6–10
TBQ3 9:44727Punt6–10
NYJQ3 5:24415Opp touchdown6–17
TBQ3 3:4700Opp touchdown6–17
NYJQ3 3:4736Punt6–17
TBQ3 1:5868Punt6–17
NYJQ4 14:23628Turnover6–17
TBQ4 12:0237Punt6–17
NYJQ4 10:0138Punt6–17
TBQ4 7:57515Punt6–17
NYJQ4 5:011149Touchdown14–17
TBQ4 1:5424Turnover14–17
NYJQ4 1:39224Touchdown21–17
TBQ4 0:521-9Turnover21–17
NYJQ4 0:4400End of half21–17

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde22/4218113
Curtis Martin1/11810
Ray Lucas1/1500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin18905.00
Ray Lucas199.00
Vinny Testaverde5-1-0.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dedric Ward37440
Laveranues Coles23340
Wayne Chrebet27321
Curtis Martin812301
Anthony Becht23200
Fred Baxter1350

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun King7/1913512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn13534.10
Shaun King284.00
Aaron Stecker1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jacquez Green15750
Reidel Anthony11180
Warrick Dunn13100
Dave Moore23101
Keyshawn Johnson1510

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

4.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.03