2000 · Week 4
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -7
Total
36
Model margin
+4.0est.
TB perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.016
- 39.6%Success rate39.8%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.9%
- 37.5%Third-down rate33.9%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 1.29Points / drive1.46
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.101EPA / play allowed-0.114
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37.3 points. TB are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 22/42 | 181 | 1 | 3 |
| Curtis Martin | 1/1 | 18 | 1 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 18 | 90 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dedric Ward | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 2 | 7 | 32 | 1 |
| Curtis Martin | 8 | 12 | 30 | 1 |
| Anthony Becht | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 7/19 | 135 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquez Green | 1 | 5 | 75 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.03