2025 · Week 3

Final

Jets

New York

QB Tyrod Taylor

27·29

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TB -6.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+6.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.129EPA / play+0.006
  • 40.5%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.137EPA / dropback+0.064
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.087
  • 6.5%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -4.21CPOE-2.55
  • 35.0%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 50.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.89
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37.3 points. TB are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W17TB @ NYJ28–24TB
2017 · W10NYJ @ TB10–15TB
2013 · W1TB @ NYJ17–18NYJ
2009 · W14NYJ @ TB26–3NYJ
2005 · W5TB @ NYJ12–14NYJ
2000 · W4NYJ @ TB21–17NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–TB
NYJQ1 15:001337Field goal3–0
TBQ1 8:511442Field goal3–3
NYJQ1 2:20649Field goal6–3
TBQ2 14:01777Touchdown6–10
NYJQ2 11:1548Turnover on downs6–10
TBQ2 9:0947Punt6–10
NYJQ2 7:4041Punt6–10
TBQ2 5:413-2Punt6–10
NYJQ2 4:113-5Turnover6–10
TBQ2 2:5243Field goal6–13
NYJQ2 1:433-10Punt6–13
TBQ2 1:2238Punt6–13
NYJQ2 0:45211Opp touchdown6–20
NYJQ2 0:1700End of half6–20
TBQ3 15:001677Field goal6–23
NYJQ3 5:511034Turnover on downs6–23
TBQ3 0:2731Punt6–23
NYJQ4 14:061080Touchdown13–23
TBQ4 10:12741Field goal13–26
NYJQ4 6:131263Touchdown20–26
TBQ4 3:40545Opp touchdown27–26
TBQ4 1:49549Field goal27–29

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor26/3619721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrod Taylor8486.00
Braelon Allen6305.00
Breece Hall9212.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson1013841
Tyler Johnson23320
Breece Hall46310
Mason Taylor46180
Braelon Allen22170
Allen Lazard23131
Arian Smith2220

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield19/2923310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving25662.60
Baker Mayfield44411.00
Rachaad White5122.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emeka Egbuka68850
Sterling Shepard45800
Mike Evans49331
Bucky Irving44330
Rachaad White1120
Ryan Miller0100
Tez Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

4.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.6%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.60
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+6.27