2025 · Week 3
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -6.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.006
- 40.5%Success rate43.3%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.087
- 6.5%Explosive rate8.4%
- -4.21CPOE-2.55
- 35.0%Third-down rate41.0%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.54Points / drive1.89
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 37.3 points. TB are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 26/36 | 197 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 8 | 48 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 10 | 13 | 84 | 1 |
| Tyler Johnson | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Mason Taylor | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Arian Smith | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 19/29 | 233 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 25 | 66 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 44 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | 6 | 8 | 85 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 5 | 80 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 9 | 33 | 1 |
| Bucky Irving | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ryan Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tez Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.60
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+6.27