2013 · Week 10
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
MIA -1
Total
39
Model margin
+1.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.089
- 41.1%Success rate37.6%
- +0.009EPA / dropback-0.049
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.147
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.18CPOE-1.72
- 35.5%Third-down rate31.1%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
- 1.51Points / drive1.34
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. TB are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 27/42 | 229 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 7 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rishard Matthews | 11 | 14 | 120 | 2 |
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 4 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Egnew | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 11/21 | 139 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Leonard | 20 | 57 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Mike James | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiquan Underwood | 3 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 3 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Skye Dawson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.09