2013 · Week 10

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

19·22

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Mike Glennon

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIA -1

Total

39

Model margin

+1.1est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.040EPA / play-0.089
  • 41.1%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.009EPA / dropback-0.049
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.147
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -0.18CPOE-1.72
  • 35.5%Third-down rate31.1%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.34
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. TB are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17TB @ MIA17–20MIA
2021 · W5MIA @ TB17–45TB
2017 · W11TB @ MIA30–20TB
2009 · W10TB @ MIA23–25MIA
2005 · W6MIA @ TB13–27TB
2000 · W15TB @ MIA16–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–TB
TBQ1 15:001081Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 9:3739Punt0–7
TBQ1 8:07534Field goal0–10
MIAQ1 5:27622Punt0–10
TBQ1 2:21711Punt0–10
MIAQ2 14:362-2Safety0–12
TBQ2 13:52741Field goal0–15
MIAQ2 9:01617Punt0–15
TBQ2 5:223-5Punt0–15
MIAQ2 3:54975Touchdown7–15
TBQ2 0:2800End of half7–15
MIAQ3 15:00831Punt7–15
TBQ3 11:4330Punt7–15
MIAQ3 9:3037Field goal10–15
TBQ3 7:57720Punt10–15
MIAQ3 4:07541Touchdown16–15
TBQ3 2:0130Turnover16–15
MIAQ3 1:343-5Field goal19–15
TBQ3 0:10980Touchdown19–22
MIAQ4 10:1968Punt19–22
TBQ4 7:17818Punt19–22
MIAQ4 3:00710Turnover19–22
TBQ4 1:352-4End of half19–22

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill27/4222921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller720.30
Ryan Tannehill122.00
Charles Clay200.00
Daniel Thomas4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rishard Matthews11141202
Brian Hartline58570
Charles Clay48210
Mike Wallace47150
Lamar Miller2390
Michael Egnew1270

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon11/2113911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Leonard20572.90
Bobby Rainey8455.61
Mike James5418.20
Mike Glennon4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tiquan Underwood35640
Vincent Jackson38280
Timothy Wright11190
Brian Leonard23160
Bobby Rainey11110
Skye Dawson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.09