2021 · Week 5
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -11
Total
48
Model margin
+7.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play+0.143
- 41.8%Success rate49.9%
- +0.028EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.180EPA / rush+0.024
- 6.7%Explosive rate9.6%
- -0.02CPOE+1.50
- 41.1%Third-down rate48.0%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.58Points / drive2.51
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. TB are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 27/39 | 275 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Preston Williams | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 10 | 10 | 74 | 2 |
| Preston Williams | 3 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 30/41 | 411 | 5 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 3/3 | 41 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 12 | 67 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 8 | 124 | 2 |
| Mike Evans | 6 | 8 | 113 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 7 | 11 | 70 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.1%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.87
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.72
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.29