2000 · Week 15
Final
Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.033
- 39.8%Success rate38.4%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.081
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.150
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.5%
- 33.9%Third-down rate34.3%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.46Points / drive1.52
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.114EPA / play allowed-0.111
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. MIA are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 11/15 | 147 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 28 | 59 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 6 | 7 | 84 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 13/28 | 175 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 23 | 79 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Autry Denson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden | 4 | 10 | 75 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 5 | 10 | 67 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.74