2000 · Week 15
Final
Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.033
- 39.8%Success rate38.4%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.081
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.150
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.5%
- 33.9%Third-down rate34.3%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.46Points / drive1.52
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.114EPA / play allowed-0.111
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. MIA are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 10:38 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 7:15 | 8 | 66 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TB | Q1 3:11 | 8 | 27 | Turnover | 6–3 |
| MIA | Q2 14:12 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–3 |
| TB | Q2 14:01 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q2 14:01 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 7–3 |
| TB | Q2 10:10 | 12 | 56 | Missed field goal | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q2 2:52 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–3 |
| TB | Q2 1:41 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q2 0:22 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| TB | Q2 0:13 | 1 | 12 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–3 |
| MIA | Q3 13:20 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| TB | Q3 8:25 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–6 |
| MIA | Q3 6:42 | 7 | 50 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| TB | Q3 3:18 | 13 | 92 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| MIA | Q4 10:36 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–13 |
| TB | Q4 10:20 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 16–13 |
| MIA | Q4 8:12 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 16–13 |
| TB | Q4 7:46 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 16–13 |
| MIA | Q4 6:07 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 16–13 |
| TB | Q4 2:29 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 16–13 |
| MIA | Q4 1:57 | 9 | 14 | Turnover | 16–13 |
| TB | Q4 0:14 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 16–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 11/15 | 147 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 28 | 59 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 6 | 7 | 84 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 13/28 | 175 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 23 | 79 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Autry Denson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden | 4 | 10 | 75 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 5 | 10 | 67 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.74