2009 · Week 10

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

23·25

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

Dolphin Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

MIA -10

Total

43

Model margin

+4.3est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapDolphins
  • -0.156EPA / play+0.004
  • 36.1%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.138EPA / dropback-0.013
  • -0.188EPA / rush+0.023
  • 7.3%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -5.15CPOE+0.24
  • 33.0%Third-down rate48.8%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.82
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. MIA are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17TB @ MIA17–20MIA
2021 · W5MIA @ TB17–45TB
2017 · W11TB @ MIA30–20TB
2013 · W10MIA @ TB19–22TB
2005 · W6MIA @ TB13–27TB
2000 · W15TB @ MIA16–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–MIA
TBQ1 15:00511Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 11:24977Touchdown3–6
TBQ1 6:3839Punt3–6
MIAQ1 5:1735Punt3–6
TBQ1 3:44216Turnover3–6
MIAQ1 2:5931Punt3–6
TBQ1 1:51526Punt3–6
MIAQ2 14:101143Field goal3–9
TBQ2 7:19837Field goal6–9
MIAQ2 2:3639Punt6–9
TBQ2 1:492-2Turnover6–9
MIAQ2 1:3828Touchdown6–16
TBQ2 1:253-4Punt6–16
MIAQ2 0:52440Field goal6–19
TBQ2 0:0500End of half6–19
MIAQ3 15:0036Punt6–19
TBQ3 13:0832Punt6–19
MIAQ3 10:4849Punt6–19
TBQ3 8:23963Field goal9–19
MIAQ3 4:05440Turnover9–19
TBQ3 1:49663Touchdown16–19
MIAQ4 14:53820Punt16–19
TBQ4 12:3037Punt16–19
MIAQ4 10:52740Field goal16–22
TBQ4 6:04946Turnover on downs16–22
MIAQ4 2:0438Turnover16–22
TBQ4 1:43426Touchdown23–22
MIAQ4 1:14468Field goal23–25
TBQ4 0:1012End of half23–25

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman16/2819611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cadillac Williams14523.71
Josh Freeman7365.10
Derrick Ward10343.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kellen Winslow7111020
Maurice Stovall45471
Earnest Graham11160
Jerramy Stevens11150
Sammie Stroughter23130
Michael Clayton1430
Derrick Ward0200
Cadillac Williams0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne17/3117511
Pat White0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams201025.10
Ronnie Brown12826.81
Pat White111.00
Ted Ginn100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davone Bess47720
Kory Sperry33311
Greg Camarillo22170
Joey Haynos35170
Brian Hartline12170
Ronnie Brown23160
Ricky Williams2450
Ted Ginn0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.5%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.28