2009 · Week 10
Final
Dolphin Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
MIA -10
Total
43
Model margin
+4.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play+0.004
- 36.1%Success rate45.9%
- -0.138EPA / dropback-0.013
- -0.188EPA / rush+0.023
- 7.3%Explosive rate7.2%
- -5.15CPOE+0.24
- 33.0%Third-down rate48.8%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.06Points / drive1.82
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. MIA are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 16/28 | 196 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Josh Freeman | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 7 | 11 | 102 | 0 |
| Maurice Stovall | 4 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 17/31 | 175 | 1 | 1 |
| Pat White | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 20 | 102 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 12 | 82 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Pat White | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davone Bess | 4 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Kory Sperry | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Greg Camarillo | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Joey Haynos | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.5%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.28