2025 · Week 17
Final
Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
TB -5.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.006EPA / play-0.021
- 43.3%Success rate42.1%
- +0.064EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.028
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- -2.55CPOE+1.82
- 41.0%Third-down rate34.1%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 1.89Points / drive1.92
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. MIA are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 33/44 | 346 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen McMillan | 7 | 9 | 114 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 7 | 8 | 108 | 1 |
| Cade Otton | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 7 | 31 | 1 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Tez Johnson | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 5 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Ewers | 14/22 | 172 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 18 | 83 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 5 | 56 | 11.2 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Quinn Ewers | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Wease Jr. | 1 | 1 | 63 | 1 |
| Greg Dulcich | 5 | 6 | 58 | 1 |
| De'Von Achane | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinn Ewers | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.03