2025 · Week 17

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

17·20

Dolphins

Miami

QB Quinn Ewers

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

TB -5.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-0.0est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapDolphins
  • +0.006EPA / play-0.021
  • 43.3%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.064EPA / dropback-0.016
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.028
  • 8.4%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -2.55CPOE+1.82
  • 41.0%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.92
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. MIA are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W5MIA @ TB17–45TB
2017 · W11TB @ MIA30–20TB
2013 · W10MIA @ TB19–22TB
2009 · W10TB @ MIA23–25MIA
2005 · W6MIA @ TB13–27TB
2000 · W15TB @ MIA16–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0044Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:541468Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 5:27370Touchdown7–7
TBQ1 4:29729Punt7–7
MIAQ2 13:59976Field goal7–10
TBQ2 8:18410Turnover7–10
MIAQ2 5:571086Touchdown7–17
TBQ2 1:43753Missed field goal7–17
MIAQ2 0:203-10End of half7–17
TBQ3 15:0037Punt7–17
MIAQ3 13:253-7Punt7–17
TBQ3 11:551250Field goal10–17
MIAQ3 3:49737Field goal10–20
TBQ4 14:15413Punt10–20
MIAQ4 12:37625Punt10–20
TBQ4 8:37546Turnover10–20
MIAQ4 6:563-1Punt10–20
TBQ4 5:20728Turnover10–20
MIAQ4 3:55620Punt10–20
TBQ4 1:50476Touchdown17–20
MIAQ4 0:5000End of half17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield33/4434622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving9192.10
Baker Mayfield3165.30
Rachaad White2105.00
Sean Tucker284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen McMillan791140
Chris Godwin Jr.781081
Cade Otton44330
Mike Evans37311
Emeka Egbuka35200
Tez Johnson22190
Bucky Irving56140
Rachaad White2270
Sean Tucker0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Quinn Ewers14/2217220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane18834.60
Jaylen Wright55611.20
Jaylen Waddle177.00
Quinn Ewers451.30
Malik Washington111.00
Greg Dulcich1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Theo Wease Jr.11631
Greg Dulcich56581
De'Von Achane33290
Julian Hill12160
Cedrick Wilson Jr.1280
Malik Washington1340
Darren Waller1300
Jaylen Waddle0100
Quinn Ewers11-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.03