2017 · Week 11

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

30·20

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Cutler

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TB -1

Total

44

Model margin

+1.4est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapDolphins
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.125
  • 44.2%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.090EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.167EPA / rush-0.198
  • 6.5%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +3.38CPOE-0.06
  • 42.9%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.31
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. MIA are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17TB @ MIA17–20MIA
2021 · W5MIA @ TB17–45TB
2013 · W10MIA @ TB19–22TB
2009 · W10TB @ MIA23–25MIA
2005 · W6MIA @ TB13–27TB
2000 · W15TB @ MIA16–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–MIA
TBQ1 15:00422Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:03572Turnover0–0
TBQ1 10:41663Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 7:13780Touchdown3–7
TBQ1 4:231059Field goal6–7
MIAQ2 14:1030Turnover6–7
TBQ2 12:5525Touchdown13–7
MIAQ2 12:1432Turnover13–7
TBQ2 10:58411Missed field goal13–7
MIAQ2 9:144-6Punt13–7
TBQ2 6:56942Punt13–7
MIAQ2 1:5417Turnover13–7
TBQ2 1:50533Touchdown20–7
MIAQ2 0:4511End of half20–7
MIAQ3 15:001072Field goal20–10
TBQ3 10:57418Punt20–10
MIAQ3 9:111076Field goal20–13
TBQ3 4:1933Punt20–13
MIAQ3 2:091161Punt20–13
TBQ4 12:2268Punt20–13
MIAQ4 8:4849Turnover on downs20–13
TBQ4 6:505-1Punt20–13
MIAQ4 4:37574Touchdown20–20
TBQ4 3:00858Field goal29–20
MIAQ4 0:0400Touchdown30–20

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick22/3727520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin19382.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick393.00
Jacquizz Rodgers133.00
Charles Sims133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans510920
O.J. Howard34521
Chris Godwin Jr.22380
DeSean Jackson23281
Charles Sims35250
Cameron Brate13120
Adam Humphries24110
Peyton Barber22110
Doug Martin2360

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore17/2828210
Jay Cutler6/128313

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Williams10787.80
Kenyan Drake740.60
Jay Cutler111.00
Matt Moore100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Stills781801
Jarvis Landry611951
Julius Thomas44300
DeVante Parker49260
Damien Williams11240
Kenyan Drake12100
MarQueis Gray0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.19
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.36