2017 · Week 11
Final
Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
44
Model margin
+1.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.125
- 44.2%Success rate39.2%
- +0.090EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.198
- 6.5%Explosive rate7.0%
- +3.38CPOE-0.06
- 42.9%Third-down rate31.0%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.79Points / drive1.31
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. MIA are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 22/37 | 275 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 19 | 38 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 5 | 10 | 92 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 3 | 4 | 52 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 17/28 | 282 | 1 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 6/12 | 83 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Williams | 10 | 78 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 7 | 4 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 7 | 8 | 180 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 6 | 11 | 95 | 1 |
| Julius Thomas | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.19
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.36