2005 · Week 6
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -4.5
Total
33
Model margin
+3.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.066
- 40.9%Success rate39.7%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.064
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.068
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.8%
- 35.3%Third-down rate38.9%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.48Points / drive1.36
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.029EPA / play allowed-0.097
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. TB are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 9:05 | 9 | 58 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| TB | Q1 5:16 | 8 | 67 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| MIA | Q1 1:10 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TB | Q2 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–10 |
| MIA | Q2 12:47 | 8 | 8 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TB | Q2 9:27 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 3–10 |
| MIA | Q2 7:17 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TB | Q2 6:31 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 3–10 |
| MIA | Q2 2:46 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TB | Q2 1:41 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| MIA | Q2 0:47 | 2 | 3 | End of half | 3–10 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 48 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| TB | Q3 11:46 | 14 | 76 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| MIA | Q3 4:32 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–13 |
| TB | Q3 3:06 | 3 | 66 | Touchdown | 6–20 |
| MIA | Q3 1:32 | 3 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 6–27 |
| MIA | Q3 0:06 | 10 | 70 | Turnover on downs | 6–27 |
| TB | Q4 10:55 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 12–27 |
| MIA | Q4 10:02 | 1 | 8 | Touchdown | 13–27 |
| TB | Q4 9:56 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 13–27 |
| MIA | Q4 6:08 | 3 | 33 | Turnover | 13–27 |
| TB | Q4 5:21 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 13–27 |
| MIA | Q4 4:12 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 13–27 |
| TB | Q4 3:47 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–27 |
| MIA | Q4 1:49 | 9 | 66 | Turnover on downs | 13–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 21/43 | 267 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Gus Frerotte | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 12/16 | 120 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 6/10 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 15 | 127 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Earnest Graham | 17 | 50 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.47
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.76