2005 · Week 6
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -4.5
Total
33
Model margin
+3.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.066
- 40.9%Success rate39.7%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.064
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.068
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.8%
- 35.3%Third-down rate38.9%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.48Points / drive1.36
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.029EPA / play allowed-0.097
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. TB are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 21/43 | 267 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Gus Frerotte | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 12/16 | 120 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 6/10 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 15 | 127 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Earnest Graham | 17 | 50 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.47
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.76