Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
47
Model margin
+5.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play+0.025
- 42.7%Success rate41.9%
- -0.008EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.144
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- -0.86CPOE-1.27
- 39.1%Third-down rate40.9%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
- 1.56Points / drive1.90
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 14/28 | 118 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mathews | 24 | 108 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 11 | 17 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Sam Bradford | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 6 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 35/58 | 283 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Zac Stacy | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 10 | 14 | 109 | 1 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 5 | 10 | 50 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 7 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Devin Smith | 3 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 6 | 11 | 33 | 1 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Zac Stacy | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.80