2015 · Week 3

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Sam Bradford

24·17

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 66°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3

Total

47

Model margin

+5.8est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapJets
  • -0.044EPA / play+0.025
  • 42.7%Success rate41.9%
  • -0.008EPA / dropback+0.126
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.144
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -0.86CPOE-1.27
  • 39.1%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.90
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6PHI @ NYJ14–20NYJ
2021 · W13PHI @ NYJ33–18PHI
2019 · W5NYJ @ PHI6–31PHI
2011 · W15NYJ @ PHI19–45PHI
2007 · W6PHI @ NYJ16–9PHI
2003 · W8NYJ @ PHI17–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00314Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:231154Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 8:0838Punt3–0
PHIQ1 6:1569Punt3–0
NYJQ1 3:31613Punt3–0
PHIQ1 0:34520Punt3–0
NYJQ2 13:3832Opp touchdown10–0
NYJQ2 12:2138Punt10–0
PHIQ2 10:4631Punt10–0
NYJQ2 9:5833Punt10–0
PHIQ2 8:16875Touchdown17–0
NYJQ2 4:57115Turnover17–0
PHIQ2 4:38721Touchdown24–0
NYJQ2 2:11979Touchdown24–7
PHIQ2 0:0600End of half24–7
PHIQ3 15:0059Punt24–7
NYJQ3 12:55631Punt24–7
PHIQ3 10:5935Punt24–7
NYJQ3 10:13615Turnover24–7
PHIQ3 7:1032Punt24–7
NYJQ3 5:543-5Punt24–7
PHIQ3 4:2335Punt24–7
NYJQ3 2:481781Touchdown24–14
PHIQ4 9:37421Turnover24–14
NYJQ4 7:23311Turnover24–14
PHIQ4 6:2835Punt24–14
NYJQ4 4:48632Turnover24–14
PHIQ4 3:2832Punt24–14
NYJQ4 3:02416Field goal24–17
PHIQ4 2:3434End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford14/2811810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Mathews241084.50
Darren Sproles11171.51
Sam Bradford3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews68490
Zach Ertz22300
Ryan Mathews24201
Darren Sproles46190
Miles Austin0400
Nelson Agholor0400

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick35/5828323

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell10313.10
Ryan Fitzpatrick4133.30
Zac Stacy231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall10141091
Quincy Enunwa510500
Bilal Powell78440
Devin Smith39390
Jeremy Kerley611331
Jeff Cumberland24100
Zac Stacy22-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.4%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.80