Closing spread
PHI -4
Total
43
Model margin
+0.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.075
- 45.5%Success rate41.4%
- +0.053EPA / dropback-0.065
- +0.017EPA / rush-0.088
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.7%
- -0.87CPOE+0.41
- 43.4%Third-down rate37.1%
- 49.7%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
- 1.66Points / drive1.32
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 22/35 | 278 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 20 | 120 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Tony Hunt | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 11/21 | 128 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 24 | 130 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.28