2007 · Week 6

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

16·9

Jets

New York

QB Chad Pennington

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PHI -4

Total

43

Model margin

+0.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapJets
  • +0.041EPA / play-0.075
  • 45.5%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback-0.065
  • +0.017EPA / rush-0.088
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -0.87CPOE+0.41
  • 43.4%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 49.7%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
  • 1.66Points / drive1.32
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6PHI @ NYJ14–20NYJ
2021 · W13PHI @ NYJ33–18PHI
2019 · W5NYJ @ PHI6–31PHI
2015 · W3PHI @ NYJ24–17PHI
2011 · W15NYJ @ PHI19–45PHI
2003 · W8NYJ @ PHI17–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00555Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 11:47377Touchdown7–3
NYJQ1 10:091144Missed field goal7–3
PHIQ1 4:48962Field goal10–3
NYJQ2 14:52434Field goal10–6
PHIQ2 12:431767Missed field goal10–6
NYJQ2 4:20814Punt10–6
PHIQ2 1:10531Missed field goal10–6
NYJQ2 0:0300End of half10–6
PHIQ3 15:0039Punt10–6
NYJQ3 13:2733Punt10–6
PHIQ3 11:55737Field goal13–6
NYJQ3 8:37430Turnover13–6
PHIQ3 6:19963Field goal16–6
NYJQ3 1:40733Punt16–6
PHIQ4 12:563-2Turnover16–6
NYJQ4 11:2435Field goal16–9
PHIQ4 9:2834Punt16–9
NYJQ4 8:051150Turnover on downs16–9
PHIQ4 3:27766End of half16–9

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb22/3527811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook201206.00
Correll Buckhalter4235.80
Tony Hunt252.50
Donovan McNabb231.50

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Pennington11/2112801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones241305.40
Jerricho Cotchery11414.00
Leon Washington284.00
Brad Smith144.00
Chad Pennington420.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.8%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.28