2011 · Week 15

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

19·45

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

44

Model margin

+3.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapEagles
  • -0.072EPA / play+0.053
  • 40.3%Success rate47.0%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.077
  • -0.088EPA / rush+0.010
  • 6.8%Explosive rate12.1%
  • -3.75CPOE+0.41
  • 35.5%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.91
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 41.9 points. PHI are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6PHI @ NYJ14–20NYJ
2021 · W13PHI @ NYJ33–18PHI
2019 · W5NYJ @ PHI6–31PHI
2015 · W3PHI @ NYJ24–17PHI
2007 · W6PHI @ NYJ16–9PHI
2003 · W8NYJ @ PHI17–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00543Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:13636Opp touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 8:5345Punt0–7
NYJQ1 6:4620Turnover0–7
PHIQ1 6:01116Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 5:21661Touchdown0–14
NYJQ1 2:053-3Punt0–14
PHIQ1 0:02842Touchdown0–21
NYJQ2 12:1800Turnover0–21
NYJQ2 12:1118Turnover0–21
NYJQ2 11:3921Turnover0–21
PHIQ2 10:56212Touchdown0–28
NYJQ2 9:57658Field goal3–28
PHIQ2 6:2700Touchdown3–28
NYJQ2 6:20524Touchdown10–28
PHIQ2 4:42322Turnover10–28
NYJQ2 3:07622Field goal13–28
PHIQ2 0:46537Turnover13–28
NYJQ3 15:00619Punt13–28
PHIQ3 11:15589Touchdown13–35
NYJQ3 8:483-4Punt13–35
PHIQ3 7:36545Field goal13–38
NYJQ3 4:2120Turnover13–38
PHIQ3 4:05410Punt13–38
NYJQ3 1:1830Punt13–38
PHIQ3 0:20339Touchdown13–45
NYJQ4 14:4032Punt13–45
PHIQ4 13:2432Punt13–45
NYJQ4 11:30542Touchdown19–45
PHIQ4 9:4064Punt19–45
NYJQ4 4:45731Turnover on downs19–45
PHIQ4 1:1100End of half19–45

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez15/2615022
Mark Brunell1/32700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene18734.10
LaDainian Tomlinson393.00
Mark Sanchez231.50
Joe McKnight320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dustin Keller36730
Santonio Holmes46401
Joe McKnight11270
Jeremy Kerley23160
LaDainian Tomlinson44120
Plaxico Burress1391
Shonn Greene1400
Patrick Turner0100
Josh Baker0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick15/2227411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy181025.73
Mike Vick5326.41
Ronnie Brown6183.00
Dion Lewis2105.00
Mike Kafka2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brent Celek561561
Jeremy Maclin35570
DeSean Jackson22280
Clay Harbor22200
Riley Cooper11180
Jason Avant0200
LeSean McCoy22-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.92