Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
44
Model margin
+3.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play+0.053
- 40.3%Success rate47.0%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.077
- -0.088EPA / rush+0.010
- 6.8%Explosive rate12.1%
- -3.75CPOE+0.41
- 35.5%Third-down rate42.0%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
- 1.44Points / drive1.91
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. PHI are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 15/26 | 150 | 2 | 2 |
| Mark Brunell | 1/3 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 18 | 73 | 4.1 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Keller | 3 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 4 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| Joe McKnight | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Baker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 15/22 | 274 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 18 | 102 | 5.7 | 3 |
| Mike Vick | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Ronnie Brown | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Kafka | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Celek | 5 | 6 | 156 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.92