Closing spread
PHI -5
Total
44
Model margin
-4.7est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.061EPA / play-0.072
- 46.4%Success rate42.1%
- +0.091EPA / dropback-0.066
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.084
- 10.5%Explosive rate8.7%
- +0.39CPOE-7.25
- 45.5%Third-down rate37.8%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 2.39Points / drive1.70
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 20/25 | 242 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 24 | 120 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Gardner Minshew | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 6 | 105 | 2 |
| Quez Watkins | 3 | 3 | 60 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 23/38 | 226 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 11 | 58 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Austin Walter | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Moore | 6 | 12 | 77 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Austin Walter | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kenny Yeboah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.50
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.91
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.70