2021 · Week 13

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Gardner Minshew

33·18

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

PHI -5

Total

44

Model margin

-4.7est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapJets
  • +0.061EPA / play-0.072
  • 46.4%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.091EPA / dropback-0.066
  • +0.025EPA / rush-0.084
  • 10.5%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +0.39CPOE-7.25
  • 45.5%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 66.1%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.70
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6PHI @ NYJ14–20NYJ
2019 · W5NYJ @ PHI6–31PHI
2015 · W3PHI @ NYJ24–17PHI
2011 · W15NYJ @ PHI19–45PHI
2007 · W6PHI @ NYJ16–9PHI
2003 · W8NYJ @ PHI17–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00521Touchdown0–6
PHIQ1 12:42675Touchdown7–6
NYJQ1 9:251163Touchdown7–12
PHIQ1 3:18869Touchdown14–12
NYJQ2 14:12975Touchdown14–18
PHIQ2 9:22979Touchdown21–18
NYJQ2 4:303-3Punt21–18
PHIQ2 2:101039Field goal24–18
NYJQ2 0:1900End of half24–18
PHIQ3 15:001444Field goal27–18
NYJQ3 6:3833Punt27–18
PHIQ3 5:281236Field goal30–18
NYJQ4 14:15632Turnover30–18
PHIQ4 13:02548Field goal33–18
NYJQ4 9:421248Turnover on downs33–18
PHIQ4 5:23728Punt33–18
NYJQ4 1:48743End of half33–18

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew20/2524220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders241205.00
Kenny Gainwell12544.51
Gardner Minshew4112.80
Jalen Reagor100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert661052
Quez Watkins33600
Kenny Gainwell55330
Miles Sanders33220
DeVonta Smith24150
Jalen Reagor1170

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson23/3822621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman11585.30
Elijah Moore199.00
Austin Walter122.00
Ty Johnson111.00
Zach Wilson300.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Elijah Moore612771
Jamison Crowder46620
Tevin Coleman34190
Ryan Griffin22151
Corey Davis23150
Ty Johnson24140
Braxton Berrios11110
Austin Walter2290
Denzel Mims1140
Kenny Yeboah0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -53.0%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.5%3.6%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.91
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.70