Closing spread
PHI -14
Total
43
Model margin
+8.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play+0.004
- 37.3%Success rate44.9%
- -0.119EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.216EPA / rush-0.105
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.4%
- +0.20CPOE-1.01
- 30.8%Third-down rate45.1%
- 48.5%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.20Points / drive2.01
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. PHI are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Falk | 15/26 | 120 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 15 | 43 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 7 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 17/29 | 189 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 13 | 62 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 7 | 57 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 6 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.9%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.49
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+4.56
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+8.47