2019 · Week 5

Final

Jets

New York

QB Luke Falk

6·31

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PHI -14

Total

43

Model margin

+8.5est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

3.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapEagles
  • -0.155EPA / play+0.004
  • 37.3%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.119EPA / dropback+0.069
  • -0.216EPA / rush-0.105
  • 6.9%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +0.20CPOE-1.01
  • 30.8%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 48.5%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.20Points / drive2.01
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 41.9 points. PHI are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6PHI @ NYJ14–20NYJ
2021 · W13PHI @ NYJ33–18PHI
2015 · W3PHI @ NYJ24–17PHI
2011 · W15NYJ @ PHI19–45PHI
2007 · W6PHI @ NYJ16–9PHI
2003 · W8NYJ @ PHI17–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–PHI
NYJQ1 15:003-8Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:551143Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 7:44723Opp touchdown0–14
NYJQ1 5:0437Punt0–14
PHIQ1 2:30647Turnover on downs0–14
NYJQ1 0:32527Missed field goal0–14
PHIQ2 12:50415Punt0–14
NYJQ2 10:583-5Punt0–14
PHIQ2 9:093-6Punt0–14
NYJQ2 7:2434Punt0–14
PHIQ2 5:535-2Punt0–14
NYJQ2 3:21520Turnover0–14
PHIQ2 2:02837Touchdown0–21
NYJQ2 0:3412End of half0–21
PHIQ3 15:00735Turnover on downs0–21
NYJQ3 11:5166Punt0–21
PHIQ3 8:351378Field goal0–24
NYJQ3 1:26413Punt6–24
NYJQ4 14:40119Touchdown6–24
PHIQ4 14:32414Punt6–24
NYJQ4 12:19933Opp touchdown6–31
NYJQ4 7:393-7Punt6–31
PHIQ4 5:1736Punt6–31
NYJQ4 2:574-6Punt6–31
PHIQ4 1:1500End of half6–31

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Luke Falk15/2612002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell15432.90
Vyncint Smith11919.01
Bilal Powell144.00
Ty Montgomery210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas49470
Le'Veon Bell79450
Robbie Chosen13160
Jamison Crowder23100
Ryan Griffin1120

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz17/2918910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard13624.81
Miles Sanders9151.70
Carson Wentz252.50
Darren Sproles341.30
Josh McCown2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz57571
Alshon Jeffery68520
Miles Sanders45490
Nelson Agholor13200
Dallas Goedert13110
Darren Sproles0100
Mack Hollins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.0%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.9%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.56
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+8.47