2023 · Week 6

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

14·20

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 59°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

PHI -6.5

Total

43

Model margin

+1.5est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapJets
  • +0.061EPA / play-0.230
  • 46.3%Success rate35.6%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback-0.250
  • -0.007EPA / rush-0.191
  • 8.5%Explosive rate6.2%
  • +3.86CPOE-5.18
  • 47.5%Third-down rate25.5%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate39.2%
  • 2.30Points / drive1.01
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W13PHI @ NYJ33–18PHI
2019 · W5NYJ @ PHI6–31PHI
2015 · W3PHI @ NYJ24–17PHI
2011 · W15NYJ @ PHI19–45PHI
2007 · W6PHI @ NYJ16–9PHI
2003 · W8NYJ @ PHI17–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0067Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:511983Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 3:041149Field goal7–3
PHIQ2 13:12729Turnover7–3
NYJQ2 10:3349Turnover on downs7–3
PHIQ2 8:25664Touchdown14–3
NYJQ2 5:32751Field goal14–6
PHIQ2 2:30317Turnover14–6
NYJQ2 1:40929Field goal14–9
PHIQ3 15:00727Punt14–9
NYJQ3 11:17769Punt14–9
PHIQ3 7:0834Punt14–9
NYJQ3 5:30916Field goal14–12
PHIQ3 0:45533Turnover14–12
NYJQ4 13:4230Punt14–12
PHIQ4 12:01863Missed field goal14–12
NYJQ4 8:1358Punt14–12
PHIQ4 4:43826Turnover14–18
NYJQ4 1:5018Touchdown14–20
PHIQ4 1:4642Turnover on downs14–20
NYJQ4 1:1600End of half14–20

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts28/4528013

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jalen Hurts8475.91
D'Andre Swift10181.80
Kenny Gainwell2136.50
Boston Scott221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown791310
DeVonta Smith511440
Dallas Goedert58420
D'Andre Swift810401
Boston Scott11140
Olamide Zaccheaus1250
Kenny Gainwell1240

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson19/3318600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall12393.31
Xavier Gipson11818.00
Zach Wilson4153.80
Dalvin Cook3124.00
Michael Carter155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson812900
Breece Hall55540
Tyler Conklin34240
Allen Lazard1380
Jeremy Ruckert1180
Dalvin Cook1120
Randall Cobb0300
C.J. Uzomah0100
Mecole Hardman0200
Michael Carter0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.46