Closing spread
PHI -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.061EPA / play-0.230
- 46.3%Success rate35.6%
- +0.106EPA / dropback-0.250
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.191
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.2%
- +3.86CPOE-5.18
- 47.5%Third-down rate25.5%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate39.2%
- 2.30Points / drive1.01
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. NYJ are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 28/45 | 280 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 7 | 9 | 131 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 5 | 11 | 44 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 8 | 10 | 40 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 19/33 | 186 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 8 | 12 | 90 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.46