Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
36
Model margin
+6.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.047
- 41.4%Success rate43.4%
- +0.040EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.086EPA / rush+0.019
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.3%
- 40.0%Third-down rate36.1%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 1.47Points / drive1.99
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed-0.031
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. PHI are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 14/24 | 154 | 0 | 1 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 7/11 | 112 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 20 | 110 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 17/23 | 141 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 15 | 100 | 6.7 | 2 |
| Duce Staley | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.19
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.14