Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
36
Model margin
+6.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.047
- 41.4%Success rate43.4%
- +0.040EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.086EPA / rush+0.019
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.3%
- 40.0%Third-down rate36.1%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 1.47Points / drive1.99
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed-0.031
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. PHI are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 56 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q1 9:20 | 8 | 48 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 5:30 | 4 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| PHI | Q1 3:25 | 12 | 68 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 11:36 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 10–14 |
| PHI | Q2 7:19 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 5:37 | 11 | 70 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| PHI | Q2 1:03 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:07 | 1 | 0 | Missed field goal | 10–14 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 44 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 11:27 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 10–14 |
| PHI | Q3 7:45 | 7 | 47 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 4:01 | 7 | 49 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| PHI | Q3 0:04 | 9 | 21 | Missed field goal | 17–14 |
| NYJ | Q4 11:33 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| PHI | Q4 10:43 | 7 | 57 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| NYJ | Q4 6:42 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 17–21 |
| PHI | Q4 4:28 | 7 | 34 | Field goal | 17–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:12 | 7 | 48 | End of half | 17–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 14/24 | 154 | 0 | 1 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 7/11 | 112 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 20 | 110 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 17/23 | 141 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 15 | 100 | 6.7 | 2 |
| Duce Staley | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.19
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.14