Closing spread
ATL -4
Total
47.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play+0.000
- 40.4%Success rate46.4%
- +0.022EPA / dropback+0.113
- -0.172EPA / rush-0.195
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- -4.17CPOE-0.01
- 39.6%Third-down rate47.3%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.50Points / drive1.77
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.8 points. ATL are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 17/30 | 232 | 2 | 0 |
| Ryan Mallett | 12/27 | 150 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Polk | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9 | 22 | 157 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 6 | 10 | 87 | 1 |
| Keith Mumphery | 4 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 3 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/27 | 256 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terron Ward | 19 | 72 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 14 | 68 | 4.9 | 3 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Sean Renfree | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Hankerson | 6 | 8 | 103 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 5 | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Terron Ward | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.42
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.07