2015 · Week 4

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Ryan Mallett

21·48

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -4

Total

47.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapFalcons
  • -0.055EPA / play+0.000
  • 40.4%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.022EPA / dropback+0.113
  • -0.172EPA / rush-0.195
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -4.17CPOE-0.01
  • 39.6%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.50Points / drive1.77
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.8 points. ATL are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W5HOU @ ATL19–21ATL
2019 · W5ATL @ HOU32–53HOU
2011 · W13ATL @ HOU10–17HOU
2007 · W4HOU @ ATL16–26ATL
2003 · W13ATL @ HOU13–17HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
HOUQ1 14:00420Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 12:01854Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 8:32515Punt0–7
ATLQ1 5:581580Touchdown0–14
HOUQ2 14:3930Punt0–14
ATLQ2 13:343-8Punt0–14
HOUQ2 12:402-7Opp touchdown0–21
HOUQ2 12:24625Punt0–21
ATLQ2 9:311182Touchdown0–28
HOUQ2 3:11119Turnover0–28
ATLQ2 3:0237Punt0–28
HOUQ2 1:511058Missed field goal0–28
ATLQ2 0:1200End of half0–28
HOUQ3 15:00733Turnover on downs0–28
ATLQ3 12:46468Touchdown0–35
HOUQ3 10:5038Punt0–35
ATLQ3 9:131071Touchdown0–42
HOUQ3 2:561080Touchdown7–42
ATLQ4 14:2230Punt7–42
HOUQ4 11:561075Touchdown14–42
ATLQ4 9:09620Punt14–42
HOUQ4 4:32664Touchdown21–42
ATLQ4 3:0133Punt21–42
HOUQ4 1:501038Opp touchdown21–48

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer17/3023220
Ryan Mallett12/2715001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Polk3279.01
Alfred Blue6172.80
Arian Foster8101.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins9221570
Cecil Shorts610871
Keith Mumphery47560
C.J. Fiedorowicz33281
Arian Foster35250
Chris Polk34230
Garrett Graham1660

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan19/2725610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terron Ward19723.81
Devonta Freeman14684.93
Matt Ryan1-1-1.00
Sean Renfree1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Leonard Hankerson681031
Devonta Freeman56810
Julio Jones46380
Terron Ward11180
Roddy White2480
Nick Williams1180
Patrick DiMarco0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +42.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.9%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.42
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.07