Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play-0.099
- 39.2%Success rate38.7%
- -0.213EPA / dropback-0.096
- +0.020EPA / rush-0.102
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- 29.8%Third-down rate30.8%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 1.36Points / drive1.15
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.030EPA / play allowed+0.041
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.8 points. HOU are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Johnson | 12/27 | 116 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 8/11 | 60 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Justin Griffith | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 8/14 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| David Carr | 2/5 | 25 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 24 | 101 | 4.2 | 2 |
| David Carr | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Tony Hollings | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.74