2023 · Week 5

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

19·21

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Desmond Ridder

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

42

Model margin

+0.9est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Falcons

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapFalcons
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.089
  • 41.4%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.171
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -1.53CPOE-3.52
  • 37.7%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.58
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.8 points. ATL are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W5ATL @ HOU32–53HOU
2015 · W4HOU @ ATL21–48ATL
2011 · W13ATL @ HOU10–17HOU
2007 · W4HOU @ ATL16–26ATL
2003 · W13ATL @ HOU13–17HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:34528Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 10:38775Touchdown3–7
HOUQ1 6:48415Punt3–7
ATLQ1 4:32419Punt3–7
HOUQ1 2:09649Field goal6–7
ATLQ2 14:1032Punt6–7
HOUQ2 12:58423Punt6–7
ATLQ2 11:12744Punt6–7
HOUQ2 7:5735Punt6–7
ATLQ2 6:35934Punt6–7
HOUQ2 1:451069Field goal9–7
ATLQ2 0:0300End of half9–7
HOUQ3 15:00731Punt9–7
ATLQ3 11:41312Turnover9–7
HOUQ3 10:5436Field goal12–7
ATLQ3 9:35972Turnover12–7
HOUQ3 4:3434Punt12–7
ATLQ3 3:531375Touchdown12–15
HOUQ4 12:1238Punt12–15
ATLQ4 11:12859Field goal12–18
HOUQ4 6:571175Touchdown19–18
ATLQ4 1:49753Field goal19–21

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud20/3524910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dameon Pierce20663.30
C.J. Stroud122.00
Tank Dell2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Schultz710651
Tank Dell34570
Nico Collins34390
Robert Woods39300
Teagan Quitoriano11220
John Metchie III22200
Dameon Pierce11160
Devin Singletary0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Desmond Ridder28/3732910
Drake London1/12200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson14463.30
Tyler Allgeier17402.40
Desmond Ridder4102.51
KhaDarel Hodge100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts711870
Drake London69780
Jonnu Smith67670
Mack Hollins22290
MyCole Pruitt11220
Bijan Robinson22121
KhaDarel Hodge11110
Scott Miller22100
Cordarrelle Patterson1170
Tyler Allgeier0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.89