Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
+0.9est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.089
- 41.4%Success rate41.5%
- +0.063EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.171
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.7%
- -1.53CPOE-3.52
- 37.7%Third-down rate40.2%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.91Points / drive1.58
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.8 points. ATL are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 20/35 | 249 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 20 | 66 | 3.3 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 7 | 10 | 65 | 1 |
| Tank Dell | 3 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 9 | 30 | 0 |
| Teagan Quitoriano | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 28/37 | 329 | 1 | 0 |
| Drake London | 1/1 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 14 | 46 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 17 | 40 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 7 | 11 | 87 | 0 |
| Drake London | 6 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 6 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.89