Closing spread
ATL -1
Total
38.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play+0.024
- 43.6%Success rate44.6%
- +0.130EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.066
- 9.6%Explosive rate11.9%
- +1.80CPOE-0.14
- 45.0%Third-down rate41.5%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.86Points / drive2.04
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.8 points. HOU are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 20/47 | 267 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 7 | 10 | 100 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 4 | 11 | 68 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 4 | 16 | 51 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yates | 12/25 | 188 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 31 | 111 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Ben Tate | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 9 | 97 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.1%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-4.02
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.49