2011 · Week 13

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

10·17

Texans

Houston

QB T.J. Yates

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ATL -1

Total

38.5

Model margin

-1.5est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapTexans
  • +0.046EPA / play+0.024
  • 43.6%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.130EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.066
  • 9.6%Explosive rate11.9%
  • +1.80CPOE-0.14
  • 45.0%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.04
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.8 points. HOU are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W5HOU @ ATL19–21ATL
2019 · W5ATL @ HOU32–53HOU
2015 · W4HOU @ ATL21–48ATL
2007 · W4HOU @ ATL16–26ATL
2003 · W13ATL @ HOU13–17HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–HOU
ATLQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:5130Punt0–0
ATLQ1 12:2110Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 12:12950Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 8:18320Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 6:48519Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 4:03515Punt0–3
HOUQ1 1:5535Punt0–3
ATLQ1 0:3239Punt0–3
HOUQ2 14:08780Touchdown0–10
ATLQ2 10:08979Field goal3–10
HOUQ2 5:06933Punt3–10
ATLQ2 1:3440Punt3–10
HOUQ2 1:05515End of half3–10
HOUQ3 15:00419Punt3–10
ATLQ3 12:531456Turnover on downs3–10
HOUQ3 7:04530Missed field goal3–10
ATLQ3 4:30756Touchdown10–10
HOUQ3 1:46814Touchdown10–10
HOUQ4 14:1416Touchdown10–10
HOUQ4 13:271262Touchdown10–17
ATLQ4 6:051260Turnover on downs10–17
HOUQ4 2:3234Punt10–17
ATLQ4 0:59642End of half10–17

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan20/4726712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner14443.10
Matt Ryan11010.00
Jacquizz Rodgers100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez7101000
Julio Jones411680
Roddy White416511
Harry Douglas45430
Jacquizz Rodgers1150
Michael Palmer0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
T.J. Yates12/2518810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster311113.61
Ben Tate11413.70
T.J. Yates2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson49970
Arian Foster34410
Owen Daniels35350
Kevin Walter14120
Joel Dreessen1131
Jacoby Jones0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.1%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.02
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.49