Closing spread
HOU -4
Total
49
Model margin
+0.2est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.057
- 44.5%Success rate45.6%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.132
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.7%
- +2.32CPOE+1.12
- 41.8%Third-down rate43.7%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 2.01Points / drive2.18
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.8 points. HOU are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 32/46 | 330 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 9 | 88 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 6 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 6 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 3 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 5 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 5 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Russell Gage | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 28/33 | 426 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 21 | 60 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 4 | 47 | 11.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fuller | 14 | 16 | 217 | 3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 8 | 88 | 0 |
| Keke Coutee | 3 | 4 | 72 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 2 | 20 | 2 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.57
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.17