2019 · Week 5

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

32·53

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -4

Total

49

Model margin

+0.2est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapTexans
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.057
  • 44.5%Success rate45.6%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.132
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.071
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +2.32CPOE+1.12
  • 41.8%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.18
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.8 points. HOU are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W5HOU @ ATL19–21ATL
2015 · W4HOU @ ATL21–48ATL
2011 · W13ATL @ HOU10–17HOU
2007 · W4HOU @ ATL16–26ATL
2003 · W13ATL @ HOU13–17HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–HOU
ATLQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:333-6Punt0–0
ATLQ1 11:38651Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 9:031175Touchdown7–7
ATLQ1 4:09957Field goal10–7
HOUQ2 14:52660Touchdown10–13
ATLQ2 12:06613Punt10–13
HOUQ2 9:10965Field goal10–16
ATLQ2 4:021277Touchdown17–16
HOUQ2 0:22433End of half17–16
HOUQ3 15:00775Touchdown17–23
ATLQ3 11:51415Punt17–23
HOUQ3 10:06659Field goal17–26
ATLQ3 7:3733Punt17–26
HOUQ3 5:44990Touchdown17–33
ATLQ3 1:58424Punt17–33
ATLQ4 14:49821Touchdown25–33
HOUQ4 11:24981Touchdown25–40
ATLQ4 6:241069Touchdown32–40
HOUQ4 3:22660Touchdown32–47
ATLQ4 1:51640Opp touchdown32–53
ATLQ4 0:2400End of half32–53

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan32/4633031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman11302.70
Ito Smith5193.80
Matt Ryan372.31
Mohamed Sanu111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley59881
Austin Hooper69560
Ito Smith66450
Julio Jones37420
Mohamed Sanu55421
Devonta Freeman55401
Russell Gage12120
Justin Hardy1150

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson28/3342650

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde21602.91
Duke Johnson9596.60
Deshaun Watson44711.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Fuller14162173
DeAndre Hopkins78880
Keke Coutee34720
Jordan Akins11210
Darren Fells22202
Duke Johnson1180
Carlos Hyde0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +42.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.5%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.17